September 10th Peak Day of Season

[cycloneye]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2005

...SEPTEMBER 10TH MARKS THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...

ON AVERAGE...SEPTEMBER 10TH MARKS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THAT ALSO INCLUDES THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEVERAL RECORDS WERE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED THIS SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE...TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMED
DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. IN ONLY TWELVE PREVIOUS YEARS SINCE
1851...MOST RECENTLY IN 1986...HAVE TWO OR MORE TROPICAL STORMS
FORMED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE.

THE MONTH OF JULY SAW UNPRECEDENTED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FIVE NAMED STORMS. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD FOR NAMED STORMS THAT FORMED IN JULY WAS FOUR. THE
TWO MAJOR HURRICANES THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE MONTH TIED A RECORD
SET IN 1916. THE JULY ACTIVITY FOLLOWS AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE MONTH OF
JUNE...AND THE SEVEN NAMED STORMS THAT FORMED IN 2005 REPRESENT A
RECORD LEVEL OF ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF THE SEASON.

THE MONTH OF AUGUST ALSO EXPERIENCED ABOVE AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FIVE NAMED
STORMS...OF WHICH TWO BECAME HURRICANES.

SO FAR...FIFTEEN NAMED STORMS HAVE FORMED...WITH SEVEN STRENGTHENING
INTO HURRICANES...FOUR OF WHICH WERE MAJOR HURRICANES. THEIR NAMES
WERE DENNIS...EMILY...KATRINA AND MARIA. THE MOST POWERFUL AND
DEADLY HURRICANE SEEN THIS SEASON WAS KATRINA...A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA DEVASTATED THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND MANY OTHER GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND MAY BE
RECORDED AS THE WORST NATURAL DISASTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED
STATES.

SEVERAL FACTORS ARE ENHANCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THIS
YEAR...AMONG THEM...HIGH ATLANTIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LOW
ATLANTIC SEA LEVEL PRESSURES...WEAK LOW-LATITUDE TRADE WINDS AND A
MOIST LOW AND MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE.

THE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON DOES NOT OFFICIALLY END UNTIL
NOVEMBER 30TH. AT THE MIDWAY POINT...WE ALREADY HAVE ON THE BOOKS...
15 OF THE 18 TO 21 STORMS THAT WERE FORECAST BY NOAA...AND ANOTHER
SECONDARY CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK YET TO COME IN OCTOBER. THEREFORE...
THIS 2005 HURRICANE SEASON WILL CERTAINLY GO DOWN IN THE RECORD
BOOKS...AS YET ANOTHER ACTIVE ONE...AND WILL CONTINUE THE ACTIVE
ERA OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT BEGAN IN 1995.

$$

GR/BCS


Now the question is what the rest of the season will bring.

Will 2005 tie 1933 with 21 named systems?

Will 2005 establish a new record above 21 named systems?

Will 2005 stay below the 21 named systems?

By the way I am back surprisely this morning as I found the net was back after almost 3 days off-line as net problems here continue to cause problems with the old provider.Hopefully as I go to a new provider next week all is resolved.

[weatherwindow]

as usual, you were missed, my friend ...good morning luis...this certainly has been a season to remember already...and, as to 1933. who knows....that said and given the extended period of lack of CV formation, i think the key to the record now resides in caribbean from now until the end of the season. i am glad that you have been spared, thus far....stay safe and think happy thoughts....................rich

[cycloneye]

Yes the focus soon will be in the Western and SW Caribbean,and maybe some developments in the Western Atlantic where systems can develop from subtropical origin.