UNOFFICIAL..Ophelia #8; CAT 1/2 near NC/SC border

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 8:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... helia.html

Forecast is near the NC/SC border, and I started writing this forecast before I saw the 18Z guidance which was a bit unwise, because it did shift to the north a little, with more of a northwestward motion. This puts the forecast on the left side of the guidance, and I flip-flop the intensity up until landfall, where I bring Ophelia ashore as 80kts--this of course also remains considerably uncertain since conditions are marginally favorable for development at best.

Scott