Is the Cape Verde Season over or not?

[JamesFromMaine2]

Whatever happened to the debate about the 1933 season that said there wasn't technology back then to RECORD any CV storms?

And no, the 2005 CV season is NOT over.

And we've already got one heck of a tracking map.



Thusfar,

14 TD's
13 TS's
4 H's [Currently, with Maria, we've had 4 TS's reach 70 mph, and no more.]
3 MH's

UPDATED (9-06-05)
16 TD's
14 TS's
5 H's
4 MH's

[Patrick99]

Actually, I should say 3 lanes. We've got the open water fish lane, the MS/AL lane, and the west into Mexico lane.

[cycloneye]

A LARGE UPPER HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 22N38W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 10N46W BUT
IT IS BEING PUSHED TO THE W BY A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N E OF 24W. ONE SURGE
OF SAHARAN DUST HAS CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT A SECOND
MORE CONCENTRATED SURGE IS ALIGNED E OF A LINE FROM 30N41W
16N35W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 8N30W.


8 AM Discussion

With those upper and enviromental conditions as there are now that part of the Atlantic is closed to tropical developments.

[wxmann_91]

Actually, I should say 3 lanes. We've got the open water fish lane, the MS/AL lane, and the west into Mexico lane.

That is a good indicator of the pattern this year. Weak subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic but strong in the western Atlantic and the GulfMex. If we had some CV storms this year there certainly would've been more fish. How strange that the lack of CV storms (and thus all the storms not catching the weakness) has so far been our demise this year.

[cycloneye]

Bump.Any more opinions about the CV season?

[weatherwindow]

luis....it certainly does appear as though conditions in the eastern MDR are, and have been, about a month out of phase all season. as has been stated, conditions east of 50degW are more representative of late sept/early oct than of the peak of the season. the situation is exacerbated by the continuing intrusion of SAL, reducing the dewpoints over the tropical atlantic. these conditions suggest that the CV window is closing and, given the troughiness that dominates that area, a longtrack CV system is just not in the cards. it may be a useful to just consider that october 2005 began on sept 10. time to shift our focus to the caribbean and mid latitudes with an ongoing watch on the islands for neighborhood(west of 50deg) development. that said, climo money is on the western and southwestern caribbean for the remainder of the season........rich

[Astro_man92]

1933 was interesting because no CV system formed being the most active season on record so far.



In the second most active season on record 1995 the opposite occured when a few CV systems formed.

Let's see what kind of route the 2005 CV season goes being already a very active season.

I think the records only went so far out into the Atlantic... thats why a lot of the storms form around 50 or 60W... notice that all the storms begin as tropical storms or even hurricanes and not depressions... I think 1933 was a wicked active CV year based on the tracks of the storms it looks like a lot of them may have formed further east than it appears...

also, if my theory is correct, 1933 couldve seen more named storms than were recorded such as CV storms that became fishes east of 40W and short-trackers that were never observed...

It is very hard to base anything on these seasons so long ago due to the uncertainty of the possibilities I have brought up... I could be wrong but we will never know for sure...

I bet some of the storm recorded in 1933 where actuallt the same storm just obsrved by 2 different ships and both thought it was is a totally different place then the other