It does appear to be trying to get better organized, based on visible imagery, although parts of the south, southwest and western areas of Ophelia look somewhat raggedy.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
high setting in
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MiamiensisWx
I agree with seahawk overall the system looks a lot better now than it did 6 hrs ago much less yesterday. Looks like a true eye is trying to form and it has gotten a lot of the dry air out of its inner circulation on infrared it is losing alittle intensity but the overall structure and outflow looks a lot better to me.
I do not think this implies a stronger system at landfall but I do think the rain and wind fields may expand buoy 41002 has sustained winds 46kts and gust to 68 kts and it is at least 60-70 miles nne from the center so there are gust to hurricane force pretty far out from the center so I think she is getting better organized.
I do not think this implies a stronger system at landfall but I do think the rain and wind fields may expand buoy 41002 has sustained winds 46kts and gust to 68 kts and it is at least 60-70 miles nne from the center so there are gust to hurricane force pretty far out from the center so I think she is getting better organized.
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txwatcher91
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm
ncdowneast wrote:I agree with seahawk overall the system looks a lot better now than it did 6 hrs ago much less yesterday. Looks like a true eye is trying to form and it has gotten a lot of the dry air out of its inner circulation on infrared it is losing alittle intensity but the overall structure and outflow looks a lot better to me.
I do not think this implies a stronger system at landfall but I do think the rain and wind fields may expand buoy 41002 has sustained winds 46kts and gust to 68 kts and it is at least 60-70 miles nne from the center so there are gust to hurricane force pretty far out from the center so I think she is getting better organized.
Yeah, just think if the eye passes over me and you IF it makes landfall and comes up our way. We would probably get gusts to near hurricane force.
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Lowpressure
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Haven't we learned from Katrina we don't want a Cat 5 sitting offshore even if it may weaken.I love the structure of a CAT 5 but after Katrina we can't take another CAT 5.If Ophelia want to be a CAT 5 but move off to the east she has plenty of warm atlantic water for eye replacement cycles intensity testing and so forth.But please don't hit land.
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just wish she would do what shes going to do instead of sitting out there getting frustrating now!
its seems in my past experiances with storms that do this (stall or hang out offshore) tend to miss us and after last nights model runs and track shift I thought once again that scenerio was playing out but now most models are coming back west so it makes it difficult to tell if we are ok this far inland or not. The gfdl or bamd tracks are over me or west or me, the offical NHC track would not give us here much in the way of wind 20-40 mph with slightly higher gust and maybe some rain but a gfdl or bamd would be possible/likely hurricane gust and much more rainfall.
its seems in my past experiances with storms that do this (stall or hang out offshore) tend to miss us and after last nights model runs and track shift I thought once again that scenerio was playing out but now most models are coming back west so it makes it difficult to tell if we are ok this far inland or not. The gfdl or bamd tracks are over me or west or me, the offical NHC track would not give us here much in the way of wind 20-40 mph with slightly higher gust and maybe some rain but a gfdl or bamd would be possible/likely hurricane gust and much more rainfall.
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