Typhoon Khanun at WPAC

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 25.1N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.1N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.1N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.2N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 123.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z
AND 111500Z.//

[wxmann_91]

An update on Khanun - about to make a direct or near-direct hit on Shanghai as a Category 4 with winds of 135 mph.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually it's expected to pass well west of Shanghai as a Tropical Storm. The storm peaked at 115kt earlier but has weakened to 90kt as it approaches landfall with land interaction and dry air intrusion weakening the storm (sound familiar?). Scanning the 0600Z obs from the PRC, the highest winds I found were a 10 minute average of 101mph along with a pressure of 960 hPa at Dachen Dao.

Steve

[P.K.]

The storm peaked at 115kt earlier but has weakened to 90kt as it approaches landfall with land interaction and dry air intrusion weakening the storm (sound familiar?). Scanning the 0600Z obs from the PRC, the highest winds I found were a 10 minute average of 101mph along with a pressure of 960 hPa at Dachen Dao.

Well it has happened to every storm over the last few months..... It has dropped from a maximum of around 85ks to 75kts. I'm told local tv has reported windspeeds of just over 50m/s at landfall making it the strongest storm at landfall in this area for 50 years. Surely they are gusts though as that would be around 100kts? Also the rain doesn't seem to be as bad as Matsa

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0515 KHANUN (0515)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 28.8N 121.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 32.5N 119.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 130600UTC 35.5N 122.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
69HF 140600UTC 36.8N 129.3E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 29.3N 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.3N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.2N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 120.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN) HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, MADE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CHINA AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH OF
SHANGHI. NEXT WARNING AT 112100Z.//

Made landfall in Eastern China.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0515 KHANUN (0515)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 31.2N 119.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 160NM EAST 80NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 34.2N 120.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
45HF 131800UTC 35.9N 126.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 025
WTPN32 PGTW 112100
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 30.6N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 32.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 34.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 120.4E.



THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON­
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET.
//
BT
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