93E Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[senorpepr]

Looks like 93E is on the edge of becoming our next EPAC tropical depression.


WTPN21 PHNC 112300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 112251ZSEP2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 112.3W TO 17.9N 121.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 113.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED 14.6N 113.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO.
RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 122300Z.//

[Scorpion]

Boo, instead of a 6 point lead its 5.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 112228
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA


Yes it looks that way Mike.