CMC losts its mind?

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DESTRUCTION5
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CMC losts its mind?

#1 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 12, 2005 10:48 am

Puts Big O in the Gulf...LOL

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
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#2 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Sep 12, 2005 10:53 am

maybe maybe not....they see the trof coming into the east as transient...and that it will not pick her up and out....gfs and gfdl take it out...we will see...gfs loves to break down ridges too quick...
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#3 Postby spinfan4eva » Mon Sep 12, 2005 10:55 am

Yup, sure does!

Posted: Mon Sep 12, 2005 9:28 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This was probably previous posted, but what's up the the 0z Canadian...it shows the sytem hitting near the NC/SC border, riding up the coast a little way, then getting shoved back southwest into the central Gulf of Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... start=1000
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#4 Postby alicia-w » Mon Sep 12, 2005 10:56 am

I was sure that had to be a math mistake somewhere.
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#5 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:13 am

Yesterday's runs were doing that too. It thinks the shortwave trough is weak and O misses the connection. Then it builds in a really strong ridge to push her SW.

I'm not buying it. 8-)
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#6 Postby spinfan4eva » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:14 am

x-y-no wrote:Yesterday's runs were doing that too. It thinks the shortwave trough is weak and O misses the connection. Then it builds in a really strong ridge to push her SW.

I'm not buying it. 8-)

Nogaps is similar
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:23 am

spinfan4eva wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Yesterday's runs were doing that too. It thinks the shortwave trough is weak and O misses the connection. Then it builds in a really strong ridge to push her SW.

I'm not buying it. 8-)

Nogaps is similar


Can't quite figure out what's going on here ... bith the FSU site and the FNMOC site have NOGAPS taking the system over the outer banks in 72 hours (that's as far as the runs go) but the operational guidance site shows both the NGPS and NGPI taking the system WSW into Georgia.
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#8 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:30 am

Should be interesting to see the 2;00 runs to see if this idea has any merit. Still unlikely at this point, but nothing could suprise me this year.
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#9 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:44 am

The slow movement of Ophelia are making the forecasts difficults. And as we all the know the strength of these troughs and how far they make it can be a tough call this time of year.
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#10 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:47 am

Still looks fairly stationary, maybe west drift at this hour. Always difficult to tell without a good radar lock
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#11 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:55 am

if this verfies (which is highly unlikely) O wont have any issues with cooling waters in the CGOM. Only issue would be how much of her is left once she did get back in the open......
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#12 Postby alicia-w » Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:58 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005091212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Looks like it's only a 72 hour loop now. No more weird GOM entry.
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#13 Postby alicia-w » Mon Sep 12, 2005 12:02 pm

ROCK wrote:if this verfies (which is highly unlikely) O wont have any issues with cooling waters in the CGOM. Only issue would be how much of her is left once she did get back in the open......


Where are they cooling in the GOM?

Image
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#14 Postby jasons2k » Mon Sep 12, 2005 12:05 pm

Doubt it will happen, but it can. Remember Ivan?
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#15 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:58 pm

alicia-w wrote:
ROCK wrote:if this verfies (which is highly unlikely) O wont have any issues with cooling waters in the CGOM. Only issue would be how much of her is left once she did get back in the open......


Where are they cooling in the GOM?

Most of the central GOM and Western GOM (discounting) BOC has been relitively untouched this year....

my point was it still nice and toasty in the GOM...
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