Lets hope this does not happen!!

[Vortex]

The 6z NAM brings a cyclone into the bahamas late Sunday. Should this verify the system would cross Florida and head into the GOM.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[no advance]

If so most likely to move north.

[KatDaddy]

Houston-Galveston AFD indicates the ridge in place across the GOM until the end of Sept which would push anything into Mexico.

However Invest 95 could be into the GOM by that time and a turn N toward the Gulf Coast could become reality

[TampaFl]

The 6z NAM brings a cyclone into the bahamas late Sunday. Should this verify the system would cross Florida and head into the GOM.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Hopefully it would remain a weak system and cross South & Central Florida as a strong tropical wave as we could sure use the rain. In Tampa for September only 0.02" of rain has fallen so far this month. Following a dry July & August and going into our dry season in October we sure could use the rain.

Robert

[cjrciadt]

The 6z NAM brings a cyclone into the bahamas late Sunday. Should this verify the system would cross Florida and head into the GOM.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Hopefully it would remain a weak system and cross South & Central Florida as a strong tropical wave as we could sure use the rain. In Tampa for September only 0.02" of rain has fallen so far this month. Following a dry July & August and going into our dry season in October we sure could use the rain.

Robert

Our residents in Dade county and here in Orlando, would disagree. Were are still 9 inches ahead of our yearly average! Though it is true Tampa has been pretty dry this year.

[jlauderdal]

The 6z NAM brings a cyclone into the bahamas late Sunday. Should this verify the system would cross Florida and head into the GOM.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

looks overdone to me BUT whatever develops there is little doubt it is coming this direction

[DESTRUCTION5]

I never liked the Nam...Never verifies...Works best for Noreasters and winter...Not to say nothing will come out of this area...But i think it will be reserved for the Gulf...

[vbhoutex]

If I am not mistaken the GFS takes this same system clear across the GOM into Mexico near th eTampico area. never shows it developing into much. If I am wrong it is because I am going on memory since I haven't looked at it in a while.

[x-y-no]

If I am not mistaken the GFS takes this same system clear across the GOM into Mexico near th eTampico area. never shows it developing into much. If I am wrong it is because I am going on memory since I haven't looked at it in a while.

You're not wrong.

[LaBreeze]

Local met stated last night that the high along the northern GOM will hold tough and anything entering the GOM will move along to the west in the southern GOM. Just reporting what I heard.

[MiamiensisWx]

The wave the model is bringing into the Bahamas is probably the wave that is now located just north of Puerto Rico.

[jasons2k]

JB says this AM he thinks the system NE of Puerto Rico will come into the GOM, he thinks the models may be too far north with it, so Texas look out.

[NastyCat4]

Remember that models this far out in a storm's history are almost useless---they will flip back and forth many times before a trend that is plausible sets in. Don't expect any model to deliver any degree of accuracy a week out---they're not designed for that.

[ronjon]

This system looks to be on a fast track for development, say within two days. There is an ULL directly to its west that is moving SW away from the main area of convection. As this moves away, favorable conditions for development will occur. If this system develops rapidly, say around 70W look for it to move more NW than W in response to a weakness in the Atlantic Ridge left by O. All the global models quickly rebuild the ridge along the SE states after Monday so at some point the storm? would bend back to the west. If it develops, I'm thinking S or Cent FL for it to move across into the GOM. If not, just a wave passing over the Keys.

[x-y-no]

JB says this AM he thinks the system NE of Puerto Rico will come into the GOM, he thinks the models may be too far north with it, so Texas look out.

What models? All the globals take it west into Mexico.

[NastyCat4]

Models took Katrina into the West Coast of Florida, and Ophelia as a landfall in the Daytona Beach area at the 5 day point. I would not call that particularly accurate in the longterm--when it gets to 2 days out, there tends to be more of a model consensus.