Canada and Ophelia...(Tropical storm warning now)

[scostorms]

WOCN31 CWHX 170000
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

OPHELIA FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT.

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.7 N AND LONGITUDE 72.5 W... ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 260 KM EAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 993
MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS... 28 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
SEP 16 9.00 PM 37.7N 72.5W 993 55 102
SEP 17 9.00 AM 40.0N 70.0W 993 55 102
SEP 17 9.00 PM 43.4N 66.1W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18 9.00 AM 46.9N 60.5W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 18 9.00 PM 49.0N 54.5W 993 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19 9.00 AM 50.6N 47.3W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 19 9.00 PM 51.9N 38.4W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 20 9.00 AM 52.5N 31.4W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN AND WIND WILL
SPREAD INTO NEWFOUNDLAND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAISED
WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY WAVE ACTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND FOR EASTERN
SHORE AND CAPE BRETON SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES LUNENBURG
QUEENS SHELBURNE AND YARMOUTH. SEE BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CONTINUED ELSEWHERE. SEE BULLETIN
FOR DETAILS.
WITH TRACK WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL AREAS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR MOST SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS. FURTHER WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED WITH THE SATURDAY
MORNINGS FORECAST AS SUNDAYS WEATHER COME INTO THE REGULAR FORECAST
PERIOD.


4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN MARITIMES
MARINE DISTRICT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE SHELF
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS ON SUNDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA IS SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED APPEARANCE AND THE LATEST
RECONAISSANCE FLIGHT WOULD SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS.
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS LIKELY MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE
CLOUD MASS THAN WAS THE CASE PREVIOUSLY AND IT IS EXHIBITING A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL AREA OF CONVECTION. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS TOO FAR
OFFSHORE FOR RADAR TO GIVE A GOOD FIX ANY LONGER. RADAR IS ONLY
PICKING UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS TO BE
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY OVER 25 OR 26 DEG WATER AND ALTHOUGH WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER ALONG THE TRACK IT WILL NOT REACH
WATERS BELOW 20 C UNTIL AFTER 1200Z ON SATURDAY. SO ANY WEAKENING
SHOULD BE SLOW.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR INTENSITY IS 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHEN THE STORM
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD
OVER THE MODELS WITH ONE OR 2 SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING AND MOST
KEEPING THE STRENGTH MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED.
THE TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN LINE WITH NHC
LATEST TRACK. THE TRACK IS CLOSELY RELATED TO THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ON THE GFS. THE 500 MB FLOW OVER OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES NORTH OF LATITUDE 40 SO THAT IT SHOULD BE MOVING AT CLOSE TO
30 KNOTS AS IS MOVES ALONG THE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL
BESOMEWHAT FASTER THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

OPHELIA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS CAPE BRETON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION INTO A
MAJOR MID LATITIUDE STORM IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC AND A
STRENGTHENING UPPER SHORT WAVE BECOMES INVOLVED.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

THE GFS SUGGESTS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 75 TO
100 MM RANGE (3 TO 4 INCHES) OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND 30 TO 60 MM (1 TO
2.0 INCHES) OVER SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND PEI. THIS WILL MOST
CERTAINLY CHANGE AS THE STORM NEARS..SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED
FORECASTS.

THE WIND FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN. WITH THE PREDICTED TRACK ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.. WINDS COULD GUST TO 90 KM/H
ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED ALONG THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING SATURDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR 60 CM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COASTLINE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH SPRING TIDES SATURDAY EVENING.
A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED
FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND.
THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS OPHELIA NEAR HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW
TIDE SO STORM SURGES SHOULD NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE AND ATLANTIC COAST OF CAPE
BRETON THE HIGH TIDE MAY PHASE WITH OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF
STORM SURGE WITH THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR NEWFOUNDLAND IT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY A WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE RIGHT IF THE TRACK. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE ACTION AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EXPOSED
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.


D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
17/00Z 120 120 100 75 60 60 50 40 0 0 0 0
17/12Z 115 130 105 70 55 60 45 30 0 0 0 0
18/00Z 95 150 115 50 40 65 40 15 0 0 0 0
18/12Z 75 170 125 35 30 65 35 0 0 0 0 0
19/00Z 95 185 140 40 30 60 30 0 0 0 0 0
19/12Z 140 200 150 45 35 50 20 0 0 0 0 0
20/00Z 160 210 170 50 40 40 20 0 0 0 0 0
20/12Z 160 220 190 50 40 30 20 0 0 0 0 0

END MCILDOON/ROUSSEL

[scostorms]

WTCN31 CWHX 170751
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:51 AM ADT SATURDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2005.
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TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
=NEW= HALIFAX COUNTY - EAST OF PORTERS LAKE
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY
=NEW= HANTS COUNTY
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
=NEW= PICTOU COUNTY
=NEW= ANTIGONISH COUNTY
=NEW= GUYSBOROUGH COUNTY
=NEW= SYDNEY METRO AND CAPE BRETON COUNTY
=NEW= RICHMOND COUNTY
=NEW= INVERNESS COUNTY - SOUTH OF MABOU
=NEW= INVERNESS COUNTY - MABOU AND NORTH
=NEW= VICTORIA COUNTY
=NEW= ÎLES-DE-LA-MADELEINE
=NEW= PRINCE COUNTY P.E.I
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY P.E.I
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY P.E.I
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY.

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==DISCUSSION==
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...WITHIN 24 HOURS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER CANADIAN WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERGOING POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SPINE OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING
TO LIE OVER CAPE BRETON SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER IT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND.

RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY
OPHELIA. RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER THE WARNING AREAS THIS MORNING ALONG A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING AHEAD OF OPHELIA. THIS RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS OF UP TO 100
MILLIMETRES IS IN EFFECT. AREAS NORTH OF THE TRACK WILL SEE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

WINDS GUSTING UP TO 100 KM/H ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ITSELF ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE WARNING AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. GIVEN THE FULL
FOLIAGE ON THE TREES..THESE WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK
BRANCHES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RAISED WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY WAVE ACTION
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND GULF AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM SURGE OF 50 OR
60 CENTIMETRES IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE NEAR THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDES SATURDAY EVENING. A MORE WESTERLY TRACK COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALISED FLOODING AND COASTAL DAMAGE
PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS
OPHELIA NEAR HALIFAX AT THE TIME OF LOW TIDE SO STORM SURGES SHOULD
NOT POSE A PROBLEM THERE. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF CAPE BRETON AND ESPECIALLY IN THE ST GEORGES BAY AREA AND NORTHERN
SHORES OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THE HIGH TIDE MAY PHASE WITH THE WAKE
OF OPHELIA AND BRING A RISK OF STORM SURGE WITH THE HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

THIS IS AN ALERT THAT TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE..LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS.

NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31
CWHX BULLETIN. FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.CA

NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31
CWHX BULLETIN.

WWCN31 CWHX 170751
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:51 AM ADT SATURDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2005.
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TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH AND COBEQUID PASS
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY NORTH.

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==DISCUSSION==
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...WITHIN 36 HOURS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER CANADIAN WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AND IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERGOING POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SPINE OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS EVENING
TO LIE OVER CAPE BRETON SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER IT WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND.

THIS IS AN ALERT THAT TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE..PLEASE REFER TO WARNINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31
CWHX BULLETIN. FURTHER INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WEBSITE
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.CA

Storm surge, heavy rain, and wind warnings are out for the maritime provinces too.