Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[caribepr]

This message is to our fellow members who live in the islands.Keep in touch and be on alert because as I see things in some way this system will affect the NE Caribbean islands.Without rush if you start to prepare today the better from Puerto Rico eastward including Culebra,Vieques,USVI,BVI,and the Leewards because we have time to do so as the system is not moving very fast.I can see watches posted for some of the islands later today.

Thanks Luis. We're on it here (and from friends in the VI's, there as well), and no doubt down islanders are keeping a very close watch on this and finishing up last minute preps before closing the shutters if need be.

[Cookiely]

This is certainly looking impressive this morning.

[OURAGAN]

I live in Guadeloupe, and i watch it very closely.
it's getting more and more organized and moving slowly, giving it time to strengthen before reaching the north of the lesser antilles from Guadeloupe to St Marteen.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...1008 MB LOW...IS CENTERED ABOUT 320 NM
E OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N54W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS ABOUT TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND SUN. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 51W-56W. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 47W-53W.


The above from the 8 AM Discussion.

[Lowpressure]

This may get ugly a little quicker than you friends in the islands need. Be careful and be prepared.

[nequad]

So far all available guidance keeps the system east of the Islands. Hope this holds true.

Below is 6Z GFDL...


728
WHXX04 KWBC 171127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.5 54.1 305./ 9.9
6 12.6 54.5 293./ 3.9
12 13.2 54.8 336./ 6.3
18 13.6 55.1 322./ 5.4
24 14.1 55.2 344./ 4.6
30 14.7 55.4 343./ 7.0
36 15.4 55.5 357./ 7.0
42 16.0 55.5 353./ 6.0
48 16.5 55.9 323./ 5.8
54 17.0 56.0 343./ 5.6
60 17.6 56.3 337./ 6.5
66 18.1 56.5 339./ 4.7
72 18.8 56.7 343./ 7.0
78 19.5 56.9 342./ 7.5
84 20.2 57.1 344./ 8.0
90 21.0 57.2 353./ 7.3
96 21.7 57.6 333./ 8.0
102 22.4 57.9 340./ 7.7
108 23.2 58.1 340./ 7.9
114 23.8 58.3 347./ 6.1
120 24.5 58.5 343./ 7.9
126 25.2 58.8 336./ 7.5

[OURAGAN]

The numerical models continue to say this future depression soon ,will go north, but the last loop continue to show a w to west north west track.
Are the numérical models wrong?
I think the north turn if it occur, will be later than the numérical models say.
What do you think about it?

[bvigal]

This message is to our fellow members who live in the islands.Keep in touch and be on alert because as I see things in some way this system will affect the NE Caribbean islands.Without rush if you start to prepare today the better from Puerto Rico eastward including Culebra,Vieques,USVI,BVI,and the Leewards because we have time to do so as the system is not moving very fast.I can see watches posted for some of the islands later today.

Good advice, Luis!

Been watching this nearly every hour with a few brief hours of sleep. That area of hot water east of the Leewards, which every system has somehow missed thus far, may finally play a part in a cyclone development, with a rapid intensification. Let's hope not!

[bvigal]

The numerical models continue to say this future depression soon ,will go north, but the last loop continue to show a w to west north west track.
Are the numérical models wrong?
I think the north turn if it occur, will be later than the numérical models say.
What do you think about it?

IMHO, not as any kind of expert, the models can change with each run, and I never put much faith in them on developing systems. Track is so dependent upon when system attains td status and center is well defined.

"Prepare for the worst and expect the best" is what I try to do. I plan to top off my hurricane supplies this morning, fill gas tank, etc. If it develops quickly today, tomorrow will be crazy and the ATM's and store selves will be empty, as everyone drops everything to do last-minute preparations.

[Thunder44]

Steve Lyons on TWC just said that this already looks like a TS. He said about scatterometer winds showing winds over 40mph on the surface.

I think he's talking about this QS pass you see can see a well-defined closed surface circulation 35kt to 45 kt vectors there!

[bvigal]

Anybody else getting timeouts on NRL site?

[cycloneye]

Anybody else getting timeouts on NRL site?

Yes the main site of NRL is not working this morning.But here is the link to the backup site of NRL.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[bvigal]

Thanks Luis! Have you been able to access ATCF? Is there a formation alert issued?

[tailgater]

Anybody else getting timeouts on NRL site?

It's working for me try this one
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_display. ... C_SCALE=20%&ACTIVES=05-EPAC-10E.JOVA,05-EPAC-11E.KENNETH,05-ATL-16L.OPHELIA,05-WPAC-16W.VICENTE,05-WPAC-63W.INVEST,05-WPAC-64W.INVEST,05-ATL-65L.INVEST,05-EPAC-95E.INVEST,05-ATL-95L.INVEST,05-IO-96B.INVEST,05-EPAC-96E.INVEST,05-ATL-96L.INVEST,

[Hyperstorm]

Over the past 12 hours the area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized. Convection has developed and persisted over what is now (finally) a closed surface circulation. This was the factor that kept them from upgrading earlier. I now fully expect a tropical depression or tropical storm today.

Yesterday morning, the system was beginning to outrun its own anticyclone and westerly wind shear was beginning to impinge on its broad circulation. The system has slowed down significantly during the past 24 hours and has allowed the upper-level anticyclone to catch up with it. That means that conditions over the system are more favorable than 24 hours ago when the system had an accelerated pace.

Once a system slows down or stalls, it is time to carefully monitor its progress for potential track changes. There is no strong high pressure ridge to the north of it to move it toward the west at this time as you can tell by the lack of steering. This usually means that the system should follow the weakness to the north and northeast of Puerto Rico. It will be a very close call if the system passes over or just north of the Leeward Islands. At this point, Puerto Rico should monitor its progress, but not be overly worried due to the lack of steering toward the west.

Now that the system has slowed down, has developed a closed surface circulation, and is situated in a favorable environment, it should intensify. How much depends on where the system moves. It appears that the system could run into some westerlies north of its anticyclone as it moves toward the NW. Outflow from the developing disturbance north of Puerto Rico could also be a factor. That being said, gradual and steady strengthening to potentially a hurricane appears to be in the cards.

[cycloneye]

Thanks Luis! Have you been able to access ATCF? Is there a formation alert issued?

No that one is not working.

[cycloneye]

Ok I will close this thread as it has been upgraded.