My thoughts on 95/96L

[Brent]

OURAGAN
Tropical Wave



Joined: 07 Aug 2004
Posts: 37
Location: GUADELOUPE
Posted: Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:40 am Post subject:

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The numerical models continue to say this future depression soon ,will go north, but the last loop continue to show a w to west north west track.
Are the numérical models wrong?
I think the north turn if it occur, will be later than the numérical models say.
What do you think about it?

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I don't buy it... I'm very anxious for the NHC 11am track. I don't think they buy east of the islands either... recon fixes are expected to be "In the Caribbean".

[Hyperstorm]

Brent...

The pattern doesn't favor a westward move into the Caribbean. At this point, this is likely be a nothern islands storm. The system could pass over the northern islands or just to the NE. I think the NHC track at 11am will reflect this...

[Patrick99]

Haven't seen a Straits Runner in a while, since Georges. It'll be interesting to see if anything comes of these systems.

The system north of Hispaniola/Puerto Rico needs to start moving if it's to have any chance, IMO.

[Brent]

The system north of Hispaniola/Puerto Rico needs to start moving if it's to have any chance, IMO.

That's also peaking my interest.

So what happens if it stays there???

[weatherwindow]

I agree with weatherwindow, the longer tropical development is delayed the longer 96L will move West, if only since this has been the general trend so far this year. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

However, I think it is a little premature and a little against the overall and complete model trend to have 96L follow a southern path towards Florida. This is especially true when each and every single model supports the idea that 96L will move well North and East and out into the Mid-Atlantic. Every model guidance product shows the dominate Atlantic high-pressure moving East towards Europe into next week.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFST ... sloop.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/the fla to GOM track is referrring to 96l, the disturbance north of the antilles. the disturbance east of the windwards is 95L, which appears likely to miss the islands on a nw to nnw course ........rich

We will have to wait and see if the High builds back-in, and just about every model supports the idea the 96L will become a hurricane to contend with.

[kmanWX]

You are saying that both will take the same track? THEN, I DECLARE SOUTH FLORIDA "UNDER ATTACK"!

From the graphic which he lays out he thinks it will swing below the high and make a hit around New orleans again?

[deltadog03]

actually his map shows a western gulf possibility.....