Model Analysis...Start By Chucking the 0Z NOGAPS

[MWatkins]

Whelp...doesn't look like the NOGAPS model is off to a good start. In 8 hours...yes 8 hours...by the time most folks read this...the NOGAPS model has the 500MB reflection of this depession in the middle of the SE Bahamas. It is way too fast early on...so that by 8PM EDT monday night...it has this depression over Key West.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005091800

The 0Z GFS seems more reasonable...with a slower track through the straights and giving the system another 12 to 18 hours before getting to the big KW...

And even the (GULP) Canadian model seems to have a better handle than NOGAPS on the timing...although even the CMC model is pretty fast from 48 to 60 hours...as it hands this thing off to a pretty solid ridge which should protect the north central Gulf...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_048.jpg

Looks like I'll be waiting up to see what's shakin' after the eclipse.

MW

[jax]

what eclipse?

[MWatkins]

what eclipse?

This time of year...the Goes 12 satellite passes through the earth's shadow around this time. Because the satellite is solar powered...they do not get new imagery from the satellite from oh...about 3:45Z to about 6Z at this time of year. After then...the satellite emerges form the shadow and begins transmitting imagery again.

MW

[ericinmia]

Here is the Regional Canadian....

Not looking good for south fla.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_048.jpg
-Eric