Tropical Storm Max at EPAC

[wxmann_91]

000
WOPZ41 KNHC 181633
DSAEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
930 AM PDT SUN SEPTEMBER 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...JUST NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA. SPECIAL
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ON THE NEW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...AND ON LIDIA TO REVISE THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NEW AND LARGER DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

Interesting...I wonder, will it and Lidia merge or stay separate?

[jkt21787]

How is NHC going to deal with all of these systems?!

[cycloneye]

Much more work for them although Jova is nomore responsability of NHC as it passed 140w.The Central Pacific center is in charge of Jova now.

[senorpepr]

For those who were complaining about products from the NHC being sent out "late" (like 5 minutes before the issue time), be prepared for a long wait for the next few days.

They will be plenty busy with five tropical cyclones on their hands... maybe six when/if 97L develops.

Hopefully they'll catch a break as Kenneth approaches 140°W.

[Scorpion]

Oh yes totally breaking news a TD in the EPAC

[jkt21787]

Oh yes totally breaking news a TD in the EPAC

The above post is what deserves a

[gilbert88]

Oh yes totally breaking news a TD in the EPAC

Thanks for your opinion.

Now, where is that TD?

[JTD]

Is this insane or is it just me? (for both the EPAC and the Atlantic to be literally exploding at the same time)? I thought if one basin was active, the other one had to be quiet.

[wxmann_91]

Oh yes totally breaking news a TD in the EPAC

LOL well any new tropical system is breaking news to me.

Now, where is that TD?

Just to the east of Lydia.

New advisory:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005
1800Z SUN SEP 18 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 113.6W AT 18/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 113.6W AT 18/1800Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 116.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 113.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB


$$

[Scorpion]

Another waste of a named storm for the EPAC. Just like Lydia.

[cycloneye]

I am going to change the title of the thread to say (Tropical Depression 13-E at EPAC).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MAX (EP132005) ON 20050918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 1800 050919 0600 050919 1800 050920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 114.1W 15.8N 115.7W 16.5N 117.2W 17.4N 118.5W
BAMM 15.2N 114.1W 15.8N 115.8W 16.7N 117.4W 17.8N 118.9W
LBAR 15.2N 114.1W 16.1N 115.8W 17.1N 117.6W 18.4N 120.0W
SHIP 35KTS 47KTS 56KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 47KTS 56KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 1800 050921 1800 050922 1800 050923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 119.8W 21.4N 121.6W 23.2N 123.5W 24.6N 126.8W
BAMM 19.3N 120.5W 22.0N 123.0W 23.7N 125.9W 25.0N 130.0W
LBAR 19.6N 122.4W 22.7N 126.8W 25.6N 130.2W 27.1N 131.6W
SHIP 59KTS 45KTS 25KTS 0KTS
DSHP 59KTS 45KTS 25KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 114.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 112.4W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 110.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM


Wow this was quick.From Invest 96E this morning to TD 13-E early this afternoon to now a storm.

[WindRunner]

Shoot. Erase another mark from the Atlantic lead, but don't put the chalk down yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical depression 18 has not got any stronger. So the Eastern Pacific scores!!!

16 for the Atlantic
13 for the Eastern Pacific

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 182043
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132005
2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 116.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

[WindRunner]

And we have a hurricane in Max's second 00Z model runs tonight.

WHXX01 KMIA 200114
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE MAX (EP132005) ON 20050920 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050920 0000 050920 1200 050921 0000 050921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 117.4W 19.6N 119.0W 21.2N 120.5W 22.5N 121.8W
BAMM 18.1N 117.4W 19.5N 119.3W 21.0N 121.1W 21.9N 122.5W
LBAR 18.1N 117.4W 19.5N 118.8W 21.4N 120.6W 23.6N 122.4W
SHIP 65KTS 66KTS 62KTS 54KTS
DSHP 65KTS 66KTS 62KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050922 0000 050923 0000 050924 0000 050925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 123.1W 24.2N 127.1W 24.7N 132.0W 24.7N 137.3W
BAMM 22.7N 124.2W 23.9N 128.7W 24.3N 134.0W 24.2N 140.5W
LBAR 25.8N 123.8W 29.4N 124.7W 31.4N 121.3W 37.4N 109.6W
SHIP 45KTS 28KTS 19KTS 15KTS
DSHP 45KTS 28KTS 19KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 117.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 116.5W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 115.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM