Something wrong with the NHC Strike probs?

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curtadams
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Something wrong with the NHC Strike probs?

#1 Postby curtadams » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:49 pm

On the 10PM 9/21 Rita advisory the cone doesn't go anywhere near New Orleans - about 150 miles is about as close as it gets. Yet the cumulative strike (within 65 nm) probability for NO is 11%. That's not consistent as I understand. Since Rita can go right of the cone without striking NO I'd estimate about a 1/4 chance of passing right of the cone (very roughly). If left of the cone has the same chance that leaves only a 50% chance of in the cone - which is ridiculous. So what gives?
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Mattie
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#2 Postby Mattie » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:52 pm

I actually commented on that earlier in a conversation here at home - when the prob was 15 at Hous/Gal and 16 @ New Orleans. I guess if you don't have a "photo finish", there is not proof as the stats change.
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