THINK LILI 2002

[Doc Seminole]

THINK POSITIVE - THINK LILI 2002

Lili aimed for New Orleans reaching windspeeds of 145mph (category 4) on October 2, 2002 and maintained that intensity into the 3rd. But she suddenly lost intensity and was a much weaker hurricane by landfall. Hurricane Lili came ashore on the 3rd in southwest Louisiana (on the west side of Vermillion Bay) as a category 2 hurricane. Still a powerful storm, it led to widespread damage estimated at approximately $170 million. Even that damage is the most I can even think positive for at this point.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/lili2002/hurr-lili-20021002.jpg - Lili Cat 4

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/hurricanes/lililandfall_t.jpg - Lili petering out at landfall

At least that is what my family and I are requesting of the One in charge of this whole deal.

Now.... although I said to think positive, I'd still be acting wisely by packing a U-Haul FULL if I lived on the coastline of the GREAT STATE OF TEXAS. As our former President Bush might say, "Wouldn't be prudent to stay."

Doc Seminole

[gabrielle01]

Lili weakened due to cooler waters (upwelling) by Isidore in that same area in 2002.

[crazycajuncane]

Lili weakened due to cooler waters (upwelling) by Isidore in that same area in 2002.

Yep... Isidore came on shore just a week before and cooled the waters greatly. Isidore didn't come on to much further to the east of Lili.

Think about that!

[ohiostorm]

Rita is close to where Katrina was and shes this strong. Waters are as warm now as they were with Katrina. HAd alot of time to get back to where they were. Wont be any upwelling due to another storm with this one.

[crazycajuncane]

Rita is close to where Katrina was and shes this strong. Waters are as warm now as they were with Katrina. HAd alot of time to get back to where they were. Wont be any upwelling due to another storm with this one.

Plus it's been 3 weeks.... we're talking about 7 days between Lili and Isidore.

[ohiostorm]

Rita is close to where Katrina was and shes this strong. Waters are as warm now as they were with Katrina. HAd alot of time to get back to where they were. Wont be any upwelling due to another storm with this one.

Plus it's been 3 weeks.... we're talking about 7 days between Lili and Isidore.

True. It didnt take long for the waters to regain their warm temps after Katrina.

[bahamaswx]

I'd rather be realistic.

Almost all gulf-coast landfalling major hurricanes in recent years have weakened substantially before landfall, and more often than not, unexpectedly. Will Rita? Hopefully, but currently there are no foreseeable circumstances to cause her to weaken dramatically.

[HurricaneBill]

Upwelling from Isidore did not weaken Lili.

Shear and dry air led to her weakening.

Nevertheless, Lili still brought in a 10 ft storm surge and caused $860 million in damage.

Also, Lili the rapid weakening had stopped just before landfall and Lili appeared to have been beginning to reorganize.

[Derek Ortt]

it was shear and shear alone that got Lili. Its core and surrounding environment was more than 1 STD above the mean moisture

[Aslkahuna]

If one looked closely at the cloud streets over GA and northern FL in the afternoon hi-res visuals as Rita was bombing, one would have noted that the flow was already headed towards the storm. The air over TX is drier and it will be pulled in long before landfall. Conceivably Rita could weaken to a Cat 3 before landfall as shear will also be increasing. Climatologically, TX is not a favored landfall area for GOM storms in late September-they do happen but not often-has to do with that trough that likes to set up over the western US then.

Steve

[Scorpion]

Lili weakened about 40 knots, so if Rita weakened 40 kts that still would be 110 kts, very impressive.

[Doc Seminole]

Nevertheless, Lili still brought in a 10 ft storm surge and caused $860 million in damage.

Well........ I am still pulling for a Cat 2. COME ON SHEAR AND DRY AIR!

Not to minimize $860,000,000.00 but that would be wonderful at this point as opposed billions and wiping whole coastline towns off the face of the earth.

Doc Seminole

[Brent]

I think what we can hope for is weakening to a 3... because it's extremely unlikely it weakens more than that, with a Cat 5 storm surge into a rural area east of Galveston. That's the best we can do at this point...

[Brent]

I'd rather be realistic.

Almost all gulf-coast landfalling major hurricanes in recent years have weakened substantially before landfall, and more often than not, unexpectedly. Will Rita? Hopefully, but currently there are no foreseeable circumstances to cause her to weaken dramatically.

The problem with that scenario is none have hit SE TX or SW LA. It is something to think about...