I wish there was some sort of data for seeing which forecaster had the best average forecasts a certain number of days away. However since there isn't, I voted Stewart because he is very thorough in his discussions.
However, I do know that Avila was the one who shifted Katrina's track onto NOLA and shifted Rita to just west of the TX/LA border.
Who is your favorite NHC forecaster?
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wxmann_91
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superfly wrote:However, I do know that Avila was the one who shifted Katrina's track onto NOLA and shifted Rita to just west of the TX/LA border.
Yes, but IIRC he (and Knabb one advisory later), was the forecaster who downgraded Emily from a Cat 4 to a marginal 3 (even when the sat pics were still impressive) and said that Em wouldn't strengthen again.
A day later Emily was a borderline Cat 5.
That left me with a lasting impression on his style of doing advisories.
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superfly
wxmann_91 wrote:superfly wrote:However, I do know that Avila was the one who shifted Katrina's track onto NOLA and shifted Rita to just west of the TX/LA border.
Yes, but IIRC he (and Knabb one advisory later), was the forecaster who downgraded Emily from a Cat 4 to a marginal 3 (even when the sat pics were still impressive) and said that Em wouldn't strengthen again.
A day later Emily was a borderline Cat 5.
That left me with a lasting impression on his style of doing advisories.
As NHC has stated numerous times, intensity is near impossible to forecast with any type of accuracy.
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