Interesting article (includes Sept. & Oct. outlooks)

[iceangel]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 5/sep2005/

[inotherwords]

Thanks for posting this. I know it's just a forecast, but the idea that Dr. Gray is predicting we only have a 15% chance of a major US landfall in October, despite a predicted busy month, is a little bit reassuring to me. (Source: Table 11)

Also, sounds like another update to this is coming soon:

" We will be issuing a final seasonal update of our 2005 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on Monday 3 October 2005. This 3 October forecast will include a separate forecasts of October-only Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. A verification and discussion of all 2005 forecasts will be issued in late November 2005. Our first seasonal hurricane forecast for the 2006 hurricane season will be issued in early December 2005. All these forecasts will be available at our web address given on the front cover: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts ."

Another interesting tidbit from the report:

"During the 2004 hurricane season, activity was at record levels for August and September but died off in October due to a developing El Niño event which increased vertical wind shear. We do not expect an El Niño event to develop this fall, and therefore, we expect an active end to the hurricane season. We continue to call for well above-average October activity with an NTC of about 175 percent of the typical October value (Table 8). In round numbers, we are forecasting 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane and an NTC of 30 for October."