Forecast one for TD 24

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Tropical depression 24
Forecast one


The 24th tropical depression forms over the Central Caribbean...


A strong upper level ridge has developed over the cyclone. Shear maps of 0 to 5 knots are centered over the cyclone. Southern/Northern outflow jets have formed. Buoy 42057 shows SST under the system at 85.3 degrees. In which this is just northwest of the center of the cyclone. This shows that the upper levels/SST's are very faverable for this cyclone. Most factors are there for a bombing cyclone...All that is needed is a central core/convection near the center...Satelilte shows that the system has become much more defined/organized. In convection is starting to focuse over it. So a central core is starting to develop. In which can almost be called a Cdo...With minus 70 degree cloud tops.

Strength reasoning
Strengthing is starting to become very likely. I'm not ready to call for Katrina or Rita like...But strengthing is likely. The earlier Gfdl's where making this a cat5. In which as of 00z only 100 knots before Cuba landfall. In which is what it did with Rita...With its upper levels it could fellow some of those earlier Gfdl thinking. The Ship model 06z takes it to 88 knots by 96 hours...My thinking is for this thing to become a tropical storm by 11am=6 to 12 hours. Then become a hurricane with in 36 hours. 60-72 hours become a cat2 over the Caymens. Then a system around 110 knots coming into Cuba earlier Thursday morning.

Track reasoning
A cut off low forms over southern California by Monday night/Tuesday. Which is forecasted to be kicked into the midwest by Wednesday...Then just south of the Great lakes by Thursday before merging with a trough by Friday. This should help weaken the ridge over the gulf of Mexico by that time. In which should draw the cyclone northward. The 00z Gfs shows the cut off low off California by 24 to 36 hours. In which it kicks it out by Thursday 00z into the midwest...

The 00z Gfdl shows very little movement next 24 hours. Fellowed by a slow movement to the northwest then after...Through 24 to 84 hours. It also shows that the system takes at least 60 hours to form a central core. In which is a factor we need to watch for. The Cmc moves it due northward....By 54 hours crosses into the Atlantic. Then off the coast of Florida 75 west at 84 to 90 hours. Then turns the cyclone just east of the outterbanks to the northeast at 108 to 120 hours. Nogaps is close to the Gfdl/Gfs through 36 hours. A slow movement to the northwest...Then instead of turning it north it heads it westward. Into the northern Yuctan by 136 to 144 hours. Ukmet keeps it near Jamica to 60 hours. Then a slow westward or west-northwestward then after. It shows it move into the southern Gulf by 144 hours.

The cyclone has stalled...So this is a very hard track forecast...Earlier it was moving southwest...The 06z models shows a slow westward or west-southwest movement durning the next 24 hours. Fellowed by the Lbar spliting to the north with 18.6 north at 36 hours. In with the Bamm at 16.5...Bamm 16.6 north...A98E 16.7...Every hurricane model Bamm,Bamd,A98E but the Lbar shows the cyclone moving southwestward after 48 hours. Intill around 72 hours in which all of them turn it at least to the west-northwest or northwestward. Besides the A98E...A model from the Ncep/Emc as of 00z shows a northward track up 85 west then bends the cyclone to the northeast after 24 north. It maxs the system out at 977 millibars. The nam shows a very slow track....

Because there is little steering currents at this time. Is the reason why the models are spreaded out. The thinking is calling for that cut off low to cut out around Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday morning. Moving into the Midwest...This should form a weakness into the ridge. Which should draw the cyclone north by Thursday. Fellowed by it merging with the trough over the Great lakes by Friday.

A slow movement to the west or west-southwest next 12 to 24 hours...Fellowed by a west-northwest movement through 54 to 60 hours. Bring the cyclone near 18/82 by 72 hours. Fellowed by a turn to the northwest or north after that time...A landfall over Cuba is expected Late Wednesday into Earlier thursday morning...Which is likely to be the western tip of it. This is the current track thinking.


Forecast
0 35 mph
12 45 mph
24 60 mph
36 75 mph
48 85 mph
60 100 mph
72 105 mph
84 110 mph
96 115 mph
120 125 mph making landfall in Cuba...
136 110 mph moving into the Gulf



Forecaster Matthew