An open thread to Floridians

[Zadok]

Curious question.....I am used to watching and preparing for hurricanes coming from the east. (live in Port Saint Lucie, FL) If major hurricane hits the west coast and crosses over the state, what conditions would you expect over here on our side. Do all of you west coasters put up shutters and such for east coast landfalling canes???

It depends if lake okeechobee busts it's levees.

[melhow]

Everyone goes north or east. What do you think of the idea of going southeast? I've got a friend in West Palm, and last season we joked about the possiblity of having to flip-flop evacuate from my house to hers and back again, though we never did.

Now I wonder if that isn't such a bad idea - instead of heading north and east like everyone did last year for Charley, why not head initally east, then south then east.

My plan would be north on 275 out of Pinellas, then south on 75 to Brandon, then southest on 60 to Yeehaw Junction, then south on 95 to West Palm.

If north on 275 is too clogged to begin with, then maybe south on 19 to the Skyway, then south on 75 to lake Okachobee, then on to West Palm.

Bad idea?

[Weatherfreak000]

Far too early to be warning Florida about a hurricane hit past 5 days out.


Much like they say in Football "Any Given Sunday" lol.

[weatherwindow]

just some FYI for keys residents.....needless to say, this is october. this is the climatological peak of the hurricane season for the florida keys. we are more likely to experience hurricane conditions in october than in any other months. further, storms forming in the western caribbean in october have produced the only major hurricane landfalls ever experienced by key west and the lower keys...in other words, if we are going to "get it" now is the time and the western caribbean will be the source and given current synoptic conditions, it has the potential to reach us as a major hurricane. we have no recent experience with the winds and surge from a major hurricane landfall. the last in the lower keys was 1948 and that was questionable. key west and the lower keys must go all the way back to 1909 and 1910 for real live major landfall. dont focus on all the misses, near misses and previous evac orders that ultimately proved unnecessary. if billy wagner decides that this is a credible threat to the keys, it is very possible that may be the first major to landfall the keys in almost 100 years. remember we are really a bunch of very small islands just above sea level and LEAVE.......rich

........i thought that this should be revisited given the right shift of the guidance this morning. if this trend continues biilly wagner and emergency management will begin the response process shortly. all keys residents, particularly key west and the lower keys please reread ..........rich

[jim09091]

going back to the original post:

In 2004, the NHC had warnings issued for Charley in Punta Gorda, with
landfall expected further north. People got mad at the NHC, they
said the NHC "blew it". Punta Gorda was under a hurricane warning,
so I do not believe the NHC blew it. You can not fault the NHC for
missing rapid intensification, which Charley did prior to landfall.
We simply do not know enough to predict these events.

Exactly. They were still under the warning area, as was where my family was. We live on a barrier island and we had booked a "somewhat inland" hotel room days in advance.... it was better than staying on the island as it can easily go under water (like any island). We left, not because we were worried the house was going to get destroyed (newly built, cement block, 1st floor empty space and garages (due to code) with a second (main) and third floor........ but you never know) but mainly because let's say you get injured or something happens... odds are no one is coming to get you, especially when the roads go under water. once you are told to leave, it would be advisable to get the heck out of dodge. We learned many years ago with Andrew, that was the storm that changed it for us. We laughed when that one came towards us on the east coast... had a few gallons of water and put tape on the windows. We were just lucky we didn't take a direct hit where we were...... don't think we would have done too well in our wood frame house about 1.5 miles inland from the water.

[dhweather]

You know from 2004 what hurricanes can do.

The Florida West Coast appears to be in line for a hurricane to landfall
later this week. Odds are, this will be a major hurricane.

In 2004, the NHC had warnings issued for Charley in Punta Gorda, with
landfall expected further north. People got mad at the NHC, they
said the NHC "blew it". Punta Gorda was under a hurricane warning,
so I do not believe the NHC blew it. You can not fault the NHC for
missing rapid intensification, which Charley did prior to landfall.
We simply do not know enough to predict these events.

My point is, a hurricane is not a point. Katrina leveled the
Mississippi Gulf Coast, Parts of Southeast Louisiana, and coastal Alabama
- over 100 miles of devastation.

Events from Katrina and Rita are going to force the NHC to establish
a new way to communicate storm surge threats. The SS scale isn't
good enough to predict surge. If this storm becomes a major hurricane,
it will develop a large storm surge. Even is it weakens back to a
cat 1/2 at landfall, it will still likely have the major storm surge.

Don't stick around to find out. If warnings are issued for your area,
get out. I'd much rather leave and come back to no damage, than
be there and have no way out.

With any luck, this system won't be a threat, however, it's looking more
like it will be. Prepare now, be ready to evacuate. As always, listen
to your local officials for information on evacuation. Nobody else is
qualified to do so.

NOW is the time to prepare.

If you live in the Florida Peninsula, particularly south of Tampa, you
really need to be making preperations. I doubt Wilma will be a Katrina,
but there is a strong chance that Wilma's maximum intensity will
be cat 3/4. That build up a big surge that does not come down quickly.

It's been almost two months here, and life is far from normal. There are
heartbreaking stories every night on the news of peoples personal losses.
Don't become one of them.

And please do not ask "should I evacuate". You have Emergency
Operations Officials in your area that are paid to tell you that. They study
your area in great detail and are responsible for helping to save lives.

Be prepared to leave by tomorrow night.


David

[Canelaw99]

Everyone goes north or east. What do you think of the idea of going southeast? I've got a friend in West Palm, and last season we joked about the possiblity of having to flip-flop evacuate from my house to hers and back again, though we never did.

Now I wonder if that isn't such a bad idea - instead of heading north and east like everyone did last year for Charley, why not head initally east, then south then east.

My plan would be north on 275 out of Pinellas, then south on 75 to Brandon, then southest on 60 to Yeehaw Junction, then south on 95 to West Palm.

If north on 275 is too clogged to begin with, then maybe south on 19 to the Skyway, then south on 75 to lake Okachobee, then on to West Palm.

Bad idea?

You have to listen to the officials, but here's my opinion - I wouldn't come this way for this storm...not the way things are looking as of this morning. If the track verifies, it looks like Wilma will put this area on the nasty side of things as it comes in near the Everglades. This, I would think, would not be the place for you to come. I would think further up the west coast would be a safer spot for you. Now, mind you, that can all change, but that's just my opinion based on the latest models I have seen on here this morning

[Brent]

I would not go south... unless it goes well north(like Tampa), so where Miami gets nothing.