Forecast #1 for Wilma

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wxcrazytwo

Forecast #1 for Wilma

#1 Postby wxcrazytwo » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:41 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am going to try my hand at another forecast for this system.

I know that certain models have hard time dealing with strengths of highs and troughs and so forth. I think the trough is much stronger than anticipated and the high weaker than first thought. So, with that being said, I think the high will become weaker and by Thursday Wilma should be emerging from the south and just by the tip of Cuba. Once, it skitters along the western tip of Cuba, you will see a gradual turn the NNE. I am going to say 50-75 miles north or south of Tampa. The trough will start to influence this sucker by Thursday. I don't see a western track along the Yuca and then North or even NE (maybe slightly). This system will strike where Charlie was suppose to hit. I am going to say CAT 3 borderline Cat 4. Naw, I say Cat 3. It may be warmer down south, but the temps in the Gulf are cooling, but then again who knows. This season has not been following climo all that much..

Image
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wxcrazytwo

#2 Postby wxcrazytwo » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:30 am

looks like the high is trending weaker per the models.
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#3 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:45 am

At this early stage Wilma looks like a threat from AL. to the Fl panhandle but maybe as far west as MS. to as far east as Pensacola. I do not see WiLma as a threat to the Tampa area on southward. But we all know things will change and let's hope they are for the better and no one has to deal with yet another hurricane. I still can't believe how bad this season has been for the GOM. What happened to the East coast threat JB and others were hyping all season?
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#4 Postby angelwing » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:At this early stage Wilma looks like a threat from AL. to the Fl panhandle but maybe as far west as MS. to as far east as Pensacola. I do not see WiLma as a threat to the Tampa area on southward. But we all know things will change and let's hope they are for the better and no one has to deal with yet another hurricane. I still can't believe how bad this season has been for the GOM. What happened to the East coast threat JB and others were hyping all season?



Watch the east coast threat be in November (not based on any facts or anything, just a feeling)
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#5 Postby tornadochaser86 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:02 pm

last thing new orleans needs another tropical system :(
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#6 Postby skysummit » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:34 pm

tornadochaser86 wrote:last thing new orleans needs another tropical system :(


That's not going to happen...this front seems to be waaay too strong. Come on cold weather!!! :D
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#7 Postby jhamps10 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:08 pm

Stormcenter wrote:At this early stage Wilma looks like a threat from AL. to the Fl panhandle but maybe as far west as MS. to as far east as Pensacola. I do not see WiLma as a threat to the Tampa area on southward. But we all know things will change and let's hope they are for the better and no one has to deal with yet another hurricane. I still can't believe how bad this season has been for the GOM. What happened to the East coast threat JB and others were hyping all season?


Personally I have to beg to differ on your thinking, I think that FL is right in the crosshairs here, and the High is forcast to weaken, therefore bringing Wilma to Florida.

On a personal note, I really hope it hits Houston and destroys that ball park there, and the killer bees that are so annoying... J/K. Little Cardinals' fan humor here.
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#8 Postby wxcrazytwo » Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:55 am

Looks like I am not too far off the GFDL track..
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#9 Postby aOl » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:00 am

Can you post the new GFDL run?
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#10 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:00 am

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