Wilma Tornadoes over Florida-Question for the Mets

[johngaltfla]

This may sound like an insane question, but it's been a while since I've been close to a hurricane that actually rides along an actual cold front.

Since most models and forecasts indicate that Wilma will be riding ENE to NE along the cold front which will drop down near the Tampa area, won't the impact of the warm tropical air meshing with the cold front increase the risk of numerous tornadoes? My thinking is that this is the ultimate collision with the high heat and humidity from the hurricane impacting into the front creating massive instability, primarily in the areas to the north of the storm.

Let me know if I'm nuts or are those of us north of the landfall of the eye in for a real beating possibly.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMLB 221017
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TPC TRACK WHICH BRINGS
WILMA THROUGH EARLIER LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. WILL BE UPDATING TEXT
PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS...

...DIRECT IMPACT FROM HURRICANE WILMA POSSIBLE MONDAY THEN TURNING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...


TODAY/TONIGHT...CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER LAND IN THE
YUCATAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM
WILMA OVING ACROSS THE GULF/FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS EC FL EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MOIST OVER
EC FL BUT PWATS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING
OVER THE AREA IN STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SE AL AND GA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN PENINSULA THIS AFTN/EVE...AND APPROACH
NORTHERN FRINGES OF EC FL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND INCREASING LIFT FROM RR QUAD OF
U/L JET WILL HELP KEEP A HIGH COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE INDICATED NMRS/LKLY COVERAGE ALL AREAS.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED NORTHERN SECTIONS IN CLOSER
PROX TO THE BOUNDARY...BUT TRAINING ECHOES MAY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR
OTHER AREAS AS WELL. WILL ADDRESS UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN
MORNING HWO AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING A FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF EC FL BY TONIGHT. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS 12Z
MODEL RUNS AND TRENDS.

SUN...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGHS
IN MID 80S. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE ADVANCING CYCLONE EXPLOITS THE INHERENT SHEAR ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MON...GREATEST EFFECTS FROM WILMA WILL LIKELY BE FELT ON MONDAY.
LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES
TO TAKE WILMA QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. GREATEST THREATS
APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IN TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. CURRENT PATH BRINGS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT ALL OF ECFL MAY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW OF 5
TO 7 HOURS.

TUE-FRI...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD BEHIND
DEPARTING WILMA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL INTO THU MORNING. THEN A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE MON MORNING AS THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS. RAPIDLY DEPARTING WILMA WILL STILL GENERATE LARGE
SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...PRODUCING AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR WITH A FEW AREAS MVFR WITH
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN A GRADUAL EXPANSION IN
COVERAGE/DURATIONS OF MVFR TO OCNLY IFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AS
RAIN AREA INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 71 77 70 / 60 70 70 70
MCO 85 71 79 70 / 60 70 70 80
MLB 84 73 83 74 / 70 70 70 80
VRB 84 74 85 76 / 70 70 70 70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...GLITTO
LONG-TERM...HIRSCH

[johngaltfla]

SUN...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGHS
IN MID 80S. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE ADVANCING CYCLONE EXPLOITS THE INHERENT SHEAR ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

Thank you. That's what I was afraid of. We could get it just as bad as Naples, just with brief deadly tornadoes along with the torrential rains.

I re-vote for STORM CANCEL effective immediately.

[Amanzi]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

[johngaltfla]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298
Read NEX's post. He speaks about the tornado threat and goes into detail on the second page.

Thank you. This has the makings of No Name Redux written all over it.

[jlauderdal]

This may sound like an insane question, but it's been a while since I've been close to a hurricane that actually rides along an actual cold front.

Since most models and forecasts indicate that Wilma will be riding ENE to NE along the cold front which will drop down near the Tampa area, won't the impact of the warm tropical air meshing with the cold front increase the risk of numerous tornadoes? My thinking is that this is the ultimate collision with the high heat and humidity from the hurricane impacting into the front creating massive instability, primarily in the areas to the north of the storm.

Let me know if I'm nuts or are those of us north of the landfall of the eye in for a real beating possibly.

you bet, i mentioned this in a post last tuesday, there will be a tremendous amount of energy and lift coming together over florida on monday. a hurricane or a trough intercting wih this airmass would be enough but combine them and watch out.

[johngaltfla]

This may sound like an insane question, but it's been a while since I've been close to a hurricane that actually rides along an actual cold front.

Since most models and forecasts indicate that Wilma will be riding ENE to NE along the cold front which will drop down near the Tampa area, won't the impact of the warm tropical air meshing with the cold front increase the risk of numerous tornadoes? My thinking is that this is the ultimate collision with the high heat and humidity from the hurricane impacting into the front creating massive instability, primarily in the areas to the north of the storm.

Let me know if I'm nuts or are those of us north of the landfall of the eye in for a real beating possibly.

you bet, i mentioned this in a post last tuesday, there will be a tremendous amount of energy and lift coming together over florida on monday. a hurricane or a trough intercting wih this airmass would be enough but combine them and watch out.

I was in Central Florida during the No Name and watched a tornado dance across the lake behind my apartment.

The next day, as I drove around Lakeland, I saw huge trees snapped like toothpicks, metal light poles bent (like I saw with Charley), etc.

Guess I'd best get my safe room ready to rock and roll because Monday could be a very, very long day.