AS HIGH AS 28 FEET
seems pretty clear to me.... considering camille topped the guages at 23...
lets be serious here... the deaths durring katrina can in no way be blamed on the NHC.
Hundreds may die in keys?
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thunderchief wrote:AS HIGH AS 28 FEET
seems pretty clear to me.... considering camille topped the guages at 23...
lets be serious here... the deaths durring katrina can in no way be blamed on the NHC.
As for me, I'm not blaming. I'm just saying that the methods of forecasting and communicating surge needs to be improved. And the "as high as 28 feet" was communicated as "locally". Along a stretch of coastline running from Morgan City to Pensacola, where exactly is "locally"??
Had the NHC communicated that surge of 28 feet was expected (without the ranges and local comment), I know from personal experience - and in discussion with other survivors - that more folks would have left. As it turned out, they communicated that the surge could be 18 to 22 feet or maybe 28 feet. Rightly or wrongly, some folks looked at the lower number as the determining factor in their plans - self included...
All I'm saying is that I believe they can get more exact on the science, technology, forecasting, and communicating on surge potential. They sure have perfected the exactness on many other aspects of hurricane behavior!! Why not surge? Afterall, it is the PRIMARY killer in landfalling hurricanes.
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superfly
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inotherwords
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I think the local mets have a bigger responsibility to communicate surge risks in a way that the public understands.
After all, the NHC publishes projected wind speeds, but our local mets translate what that could mean to our specific geographic areas. Our local mets mention surge all the time and stress its importance, but it's really sort of in an abstract way. What they need to do is provide a graphic, sort of along the lines of these new Titan graphics packages they've been using recently. Or like what Skeetobite does for wind field estimations with their graphics.
I've called and emailed our local TV station about this lack of communication re: surge several times. I've left messages with the producers of the weather part of the news and have never received an answer back. This year, at least, I saw that they provided a link to a site that gives people much better and more detailed info about the evacuation zones and what they mean than before. This same local TV station sends out a booklet at the beginning of the season, and the entire county's color-coded evacuation map is on a two-page spread. It's impossible to look at this map and understand exactly what it means because it's so small. If you live near the coast, you could not possibly see what zone you were in if there were several all bunched up together. I called to complain about this and learn how I could find out more. Once I understood that zone numbers correlated with hurricane strength (duh!) and that flood zone designations may be irrelevant, and that each color depicted how far inland water would come, I started to understand. But we still don't know how high, how fast, how intense. Is it gradual? Is it like a tsunami? Could what happened in Miss. happen here too? If so, then why does the map not reflect this?
The mets got their surge maps from our county. It took some pressure on the county to improve the way this information was provided to the public. But then, the county's websites are so fragmented and outdated and difficult to navigate up that people really have a hard time finding anything when they needed it. In a situation like this, people often turn to the media, so it's good to see that the media was stepping up to this plate a bit and at least providing better info this year.
I did not understand about surge being different if the storm came in north or south of us, and like the Katrina victims in Miss., I did not realize that if a storm diminished you would probably still get the higher surge. I also did not (and still do not) understand how far up and down the coast to expect a surge. I think that most of the reason I did not know or understand this is because surge was mentioned and forecast so many times on the news and I saw absolutely nothing. Or that it was hyped like crazy and ended up just being a "meh" thing. For instance, Key West has maybe 3 feet of water on Duval St. but from the forecasts, it sounded like they would be getting a big surge of Katrina-like proportions. It's this expectation vs. reality experience that we use over time to make our decisions, and it can lead to complacency if people don't understand. So if the reality is actually going to be different, there has to be a better way to let people know than what exists now.
I still don't think this is a NHC job, though. It's local gov't, state and county EOC. They should get the numbers from the NHC and then extrapolate them and give meaningful visual aids.
The NHC's job, IMO, is to keep on improving and refining their forecasts for intensity, which will have a direct bearing on surge information and how timely and accurately it's provided and communicated locally.
Whew. Didn't mean to go on about this but I think you all can see this surge thing is a pet peeve of mine.
After all, the NHC publishes projected wind speeds, but our local mets translate what that could mean to our specific geographic areas. Our local mets mention surge all the time and stress its importance, but it's really sort of in an abstract way. What they need to do is provide a graphic, sort of along the lines of these new Titan graphics packages they've been using recently. Or like what Skeetobite does for wind field estimations with their graphics.
I've called and emailed our local TV station about this lack of communication re: surge several times. I've left messages with the producers of the weather part of the news and have never received an answer back. This year, at least, I saw that they provided a link to a site that gives people much better and more detailed info about the evacuation zones and what they mean than before. This same local TV station sends out a booklet at the beginning of the season, and the entire county's color-coded evacuation map is on a two-page spread. It's impossible to look at this map and understand exactly what it means because it's so small. If you live near the coast, you could not possibly see what zone you were in if there were several all bunched up together. I called to complain about this and learn how I could find out more. Once I understood that zone numbers correlated with hurricane strength (duh!) and that flood zone designations may be irrelevant, and that each color depicted how far inland water would come, I started to understand. But we still don't know how high, how fast, how intense. Is it gradual? Is it like a tsunami? Could what happened in Miss. happen here too? If so, then why does the map not reflect this?
The mets got their surge maps from our county. It took some pressure on the county to improve the way this information was provided to the public. But then, the county's websites are so fragmented and outdated and difficult to navigate up that people really have a hard time finding anything when they needed it. In a situation like this, people often turn to the media, so it's good to see that the media was stepping up to this plate a bit and at least providing better info this year.
I did not understand about surge being different if the storm came in north or south of us, and like the Katrina victims in Miss., I did not realize that if a storm diminished you would probably still get the higher surge. I also did not (and still do not) understand how far up and down the coast to expect a surge. I think that most of the reason I did not know or understand this is because surge was mentioned and forecast so many times on the news and I saw absolutely nothing. Or that it was hyped like crazy and ended up just being a "meh" thing. For instance, Key West has maybe 3 feet of water on Duval St. but from the forecasts, it sounded like they would be getting a big surge of Katrina-like proportions. It's this expectation vs. reality experience that we use over time to make our decisions, and it can lead to complacency if people don't understand. So if the reality is actually going to be different, there has to be a better way to let people know than what exists now.
I still don't think this is a NHC job, though. It's local gov't, state and county EOC. They should get the numbers from the NHC and then extrapolate them and give meaningful visual aids.
The NHC's job, IMO, is to keep on improving and refining their forecasts for intensity, which will have a direct bearing on surge information and how timely and accurately it's provided and communicated locally.
Whew. Didn't mean to go on about this but I think you all can see this surge thing is a pet peeve of mine.
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thunderchief
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thunderchief wrote:AS HIGH AS 28 FEET
seems pretty clear to me.... considering camille topped the guages at 23...
lets be serious here... the deaths durring katrina can in no way be blamed on the NHC.
He's not blamed any deaths on the NHC.
His point, which I completely agree with, is that we can say:
Winds 140MPH
Pressure 922 MB
But surge is "oh, 15 to 28, something like that"
It's insane. If we state the winds as the maximum, then why not the surge?
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curtadams
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I agree:
Winds 140 mph
Pressure 922 mbar
Surge 28 feet
with a variability caveat, makes a crisp prediction
With Katrina, at least in hindsight, somebody dropped the ball by not emphasizing "SURGE SURPASSING CAMILLE IN MANY AREAS". That's a concern peculiar to this situation, since Camille was always the benchmark for a worst-case hurricane. It would have been true and needed even if Katrina brought approximately the same surge as Camille since she wouldn't be expected to come in the same place. That does seem like more of a responsibility of local mets since it isn't the NHC's business to know MS locals evaluated surge by comparison to Camille.
Winds 140 mph
Pressure 922 mbar
Surge 28 feet
with a variability caveat, makes a crisp prediction
With Katrina, at least in hindsight, somebody dropped the ball by not emphasizing "SURGE SURPASSING CAMILLE IN MANY AREAS". That's a concern peculiar to this situation, since Camille was always the benchmark for a worst-case hurricane. It would have been true and needed even if Katrina brought approximately the same surge as Camille since she wouldn't be expected to come in the same place. That does seem like more of a responsibility of local mets since it isn't the NHC's business to know MS locals evaluated surge by comparison to Camille.
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thunderchief wrote:where exactly is "locally"??
does it matter? 28 feet is 28 feet. Thats not worth the risk of saying "since only some regions are going to get totally wiped out, theres a chance it might not kill me..."
Well, from an evacuation standpoint - and all the issues that commence when that takes place - the difference between 15 feet and 28 feet is pretty significant. Just as the difference between 90MPH winds and 130MPH winds is pretty significant.
As we all know, the NHC does not forecast winds in a range, even though we all know the winds in any landfalling cane can "range" quite widely. Why then, do they forecast the surge in a range?? Doing so - rightly or wrongly - tends have people key in on to the lower number and consequently into making decisions that may not be in their best interest. And this includes idiots, uneducated, well-educated, rich, poor, stupid, smart, and Darwins, etc....
If it's "only" 15 feet, I'll be high and dry where I am - in fact, it'll have to rise another 17 feet to enter my house! If it's 28 feet, then I (and many others) will consider our options much more carefully.
Again, and as DH pointed out, had they stated 28 feet - just like stating winds at 140MPH - I believe folks may have viewed Katrina with a different perspective and moved to higher ground.
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I have a Uncle that lives in Marathon and my Grandma told me on the phone last night that he didnt evacuate......why i have no clue.......and we still havent heard from him.....I hope they are O.K. 
...they have evacuated for every other hurricane this year .....why they didnt for Wilma is beyond me......I hope my Grandma hears from them today.
...they have evacuated for every other hurricane this year .....why they didnt for Wilma is beyond me......I hope my Grandma hears from them today.
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