Is it over??

[gatorcane]

thanks, I'm okay because I'm on a business trip this week, I secured as much as possible before leaving but I know I'm still out of power. I'm up in the Northeast. How did you make out?

This noreaster sucks, hurricane force winds up here

[caneman]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 241927 CCB
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

.UPDATE: WILL DOWNGRADE THE COASTAL HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM. REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION REMAINS
THE SAME. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ALL COASTAL TROPICAL WARNINGS WILL BE
DISCONTINUED AT 5 PM. HAVE ALSO ADDED RED FLAG WARNING FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO W/W/A SECTION. WILL UPDATE DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN
WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ARE REPLACED WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES FOR THE BEACHES.

CORRECTED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO W/W/A SECTION AND PRELIMINARY
POINT TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

...AAAHHHH: AUTUMN!...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY - WED)...WITH WILMA`S PASSAGE ENDS THE
2005 HURRICANE SEASON ACROSS THE SUNCOAST. AND THOUGH WE WERE ONLY
GRAZED BY THIS YEAR`S STORMS...THE SEASON ITSELF WILL GO DOWN TRULY
RECORD BREAKING...IN ALL SENSES OF THE WORD...FOR THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. WITH EXPECTED RAPID COOLING OF THE GULF WATERS...ANY FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY GET SHUT DOWN BY THE WATERS...SHEAR...OR
BOTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FINAL MONTH OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON.

ANYWAY...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. FROM THE FAMILIAR FOGGED
UP WINDOWS AND THE CONSTANT HUM OF AIR CONDITIONING TO THE BLUSTERY
PUNCH OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT
ONE POINT EARLIER THIS MORNING...DECEMBER LIKE WEATHER HAS ARRIVED
LIKE A LION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH A CONTINUED BLUSTERY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING BACK TOWARD 70 BUT WITH RAPID
CLEARING UNDERWAY. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP GULF
STRATOCU AT BAY (OR SEA IF YOU WILL). STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH CONTINUE AT NOON...BUT
EXPECT THESE TO BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY 3 PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER...BUT WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 15
TO 20 MPH RANGE IN FAVORED AREAS NEAR WARMER WATER. ELSEWHERE...
VALUES SHOULD FALL TO 5 TO 10 MPH IN MANY AREAS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY FALL INTO THE WINTER-LIKE 40 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE (55 TO 60 NEAR THE WATER). WIND CHILL WILL ACTUALLY BE A
CONCERN BUT MORE FROM A RAPID CHANGE STANDPOINT...BUT VALUES WILL NOT
COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT A RATHER COOL DAY...REFRESHING
IN FACT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS FORECAST...IN THE 60S EXCEPT
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH ZONES.

WILL HOIST HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THE BEACHES THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT SETS THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR RURAL
SECTIONS. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY FROST (YES, FROST!) ON CAR ROOFS
AND OTHER EXPOSED RADIATION AREAS FROM NORTHERN PASCO COUNTY
THROUGH LEVY COUNTY. WILL FORECAST UPPER 30S IN PREFERRED NATURE
COAST AND LOWER 40S OVER INTERIOR RURAL AREAS...WITH 45 TO 55
ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS FANTASTIC WITH JUST ENOUGH TEMPERATURE MODERATION
BUT STILL COOL...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 70 NORTH TO 75 OR SO
SOUTH.

HOPING TO DROP TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE (2 TO 3 PM). WILL SEND IMMEDIATE UPDATE AT THAT TIME.

ENJOY THE CHANGE!

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THRU THE WEAKEN...THEN THE PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MON. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE N OR NE...THUS KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. WILL LOWER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS 20 POPS FRI TO MON. GIVEN THE DRY N TO NE FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHRA. WILL DROP POPS
DOWN TO 10 PCT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN VALUES TO HIGH
SMALL CRAFT WITH AN EARLY UPDATE AROUND 2 PM. SEAS WILL
DROP OFF STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THEIR HURRICANE-INDUCED
HIGHS...THEN A SLOWER DROP OFF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER STILL WARM (80 DEGREES LAST CHECK)
WATERS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP INTO CAUTION RANGE
BY TUE NIGHT AND PROBABLY BELOW HIGHLIGHT LEVELS THEREAFTER.

AS FOR WINDS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 25 TO 30 KNOTS INTO
SUNSET...THEN A SLOW DROP OFF OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 15 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH EXPECT A GENERAL FRESH BREEZE (GOOD FOR SAILING)
BUT NOTHING ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. GRADIENT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT/WILMA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...AND
EXPECTING GUSTS TO COME DOWN TO AT MOST 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AT OUR TAF
SITES. POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH CIGS WILL BE IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATING WINDS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM NW TO N...WITH THE FORMER MEANING COASTAL SITES...WOULD
SEE IFR CIGS. WILL PUT SCT CLOUDS IN TAFS FOR OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD
OFF GOING WITH BKN UNTIL WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE ISSUING OUR FIRST WATCH OF THE SEASON FOR
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TUESDAY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR
TWO HOURS OF BELOW 35 PERCENT HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. FARTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY THE GULF ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITY
AT 40 PERCENT OR A BIT HIGHER. WEDNESDAY MAY BE CLOSE AS WELL WITH
DURATIONS NEARING 4 HOURS IN SOME SPOTS. WILL ADDRESS FURTHER NEXT
FEW SHIFTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 51 66 49 71 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 54 72 52 73 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 48 66 46 71 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 53 68 51 72 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 40 66 39 70 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL SUNSET PINELLAS...POLK...HILLSBOROUGH...
HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...MANATEE...SARASOTA...
CHARLOTTE...AND LEE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY...INCLUDING
THE SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...TIDAL DESOTO AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND LEVY...EASTERN
CITRUS...AND SUMTER COUNTIES.
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY FOR LEVY COUNTY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS





For US it seems to be

Boy that person sure could end up with egg on their face. It is ok though cause I've heard many local weatherman say the same thing.

[JamesFromMaine2]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 241927 CCB
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

.UPDATE: WILL DOWNGRADE THE COASTAL HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM. REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION REMAINS
THE SAME. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ALL COASTAL TROPICAL WARNINGS WILL BE
DISCONTINUED AT 5 PM. HAVE ALSO ADDED RED FLAG WARNING FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO W/W/A SECTION. WILL UPDATE DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN
WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ARE REPLACED WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES FOR THE BEACHES.

CORRECTED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO W/W/A SECTION AND PRELIMINARY
POINT TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

...AAAHHHH: AUTUMN!...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY - WED)...WITH WILMA`S PASSAGE ENDS THE
2005 HURRICANE SEASON ACROSS THE SUNCOAST. AND THOUGH WE WERE ONLY
GRAZED BY THIS YEAR`S STORMS...THE SEASON ITSELF WILL GO DOWN TRULY
RECORD BREAKING...IN ALL SENSES OF THE WORD...FOR THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. WITH EXPECTED RAPID COOLING OF THE GULF WATERS...ANY FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY GET SHUT DOWN BY THE WATERS...SHEAR...OR
BOTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FINAL MONTH OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON.

ANYWAY...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. FROM THE FAMILIAR FOGGED
UP WINDOWS AND THE CONSTANT HUM OF AIR CONDITIONING TO THE BLUSTERY
PUNCH OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT
ONE POINT EARLIER THIS MORNING...DECEMBER LIKE WEATHER HAS ARRIVED
LIKE A LION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH A CONTINUED BLUSTERY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING BACK TOWARD 70 BUT WITH RAPID
CLEARING UNDERWAY. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP GULF
STRATOCU AT BAY (OR SEA IF YOU WILL). STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH CONTINUE AT NOON...BUT
EXPECT THESE TO BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY 3 PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER...BUT WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 15
TO 20 MPH RANGE IN FAVORED AREAS NEAR WARMER WATER. ELSEWHERE...
VALUES SHOULD FALL TO 5 TO 10 MPH IN MANY AREAS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY FALL INTO THE WINTER-LIKE 40 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE (55 TO 60 NEAR THE WATER). WIND CHILL WILL ACTUALLY BE A
CONCERN BUT MORE FROM A RAPID CHANGE STANDPOINT...BUT VALUES WILL NOT
COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT A RATHER COOL DAY...REFRESHING
IN FACT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS FORECAST...IN THE 60S EXCEPT
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH ZONES.

WILL HOIST HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THE BEACHES THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT SETS THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR RURAL
SECTIONS. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY FROST (YES, FROST!) ON CAR ROOFS
AND OTHER EXPOSED RADIATION AREAS FROM NORTHERN PASCO COUNTY
THROUGH LEVY COUNTY. WILL FORECAST UPPER 30S IN PREFERRED NATURE
COAST AND LOWER 40S OVER INTERIOR RURAL AREAS...WITH 45 TO 55
ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS FANTASTIC WITH JUST ENOUGH TEMPERATURE MODERATION
BUT STILL COOL...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 70 NORTH TO 75 OR SO
SOUTH.

HOPING TO DROP TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE (2 TO 3 PM). WILL SEND IMMEDIATE UPDATE AT THAT TIME.

ENJOY THE CHANGE!

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THRU THE WEAKEN...THEN THE PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MON. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE N OR NE...THUS KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. WILL LOWER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS 20 POPS FRI TO MON. GIVEN THE DRY N TO NE FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHRA. WILL DROP POPS
DOWN TO 10 PCT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN VALUES TO HIGH
SMALL CRAFT WITH AN EARLY UPDATE AROUND 2 PM. SEAS WILL
DROP OFF STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THEIR HURRICANE-INDUCED
HIGHS...THEN A SLOWER DROP OFF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER STILL WARM (80 DEGREES LAST CHECK)
WATERS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP INTO CAUTION RANGE
BY TUE NIGHT AND PROBABLY BELOW HIGHLIGHT LEVELS THEREAFTER.

AS FOR WINDS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 25 TO 30 KNOTS INTO
SUNSET...THEN A SLOW DROP OFF OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 15 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH EXPECT A GENERAL FRESH BREEZE (GOOD FOR SAILING)
BUT NOTHING ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. GRADIENT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT/WILMA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...AND
EXPECTING GUSTS TO COME DOWN TO AT MOST 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AT OUR TAF
SITES. POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH CIGS WILL BE IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATING WINDS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM NW TO N...WITH THE FORMER MEANING COASTAL SITES...WOULD
SEE IFR CIGS. WILL PUT SCT CLOUDS IN TAFS FOR OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD
OFF GOING WITH BKN UNTIL WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE ISSUING OUR FIRST WATCH OF THE SEASON FOR
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TUESDAY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR
TWO HOURS OF BELOW 35 PERCENT HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. FARTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY THE GULF ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITY
AT 40 PERCENT OR A BIT HIGHER. WEDNESDAY MAY BE CLOSE AS WELL WITH
DURATIONS NEARING 4 HOURS IN SOME SPOTS. WILL ADDRESS FURTHER NEXT
FEW SHIFTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 51 66 49 71 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 54 72 52 73 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 48 66 46 71 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 53 68 51 72 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 40 66 39 70 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL SUNSET PINELLAS...POLK...HILLSBOROUGH...
HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...MANATEE...SARASOTA...
CHARLOTTE...AND LEE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY...INCLUDING
THE SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...TIDAL DESOTO AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND LEVY...EASTERN
CITRUS...AND SUMTER COUNTIES.
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY FOR LEVY COUNTY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS





For US it seems to be

Boy that person sure could end up with egg on their face. It is ok though cause I've heard many local weatherman say the same thing.

considering the way this season has been I hope all the forcasters who said that gets fired if theres another Hurricane or landfalling TC! I think the NHC would be able to better forcast the Tropical weather then some local met! and with another pretty good looking Invest out there now it looks like the local Mets were wrong!

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 241927 CCB
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

.UPDATE: WILL DOWNGRADE THE COASTAL HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM. REMAINDER OF DISCUSSION REMAINS
THE SAME. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ALL COASTAL TROPICAL WARNINGS WILL BE
DISCONTINUED AT 5 PM. HAVE ALSO ADDED RED FLAG WARNING FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON TO W/W/A SECTION. WILL UPDATE DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN
WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ARE REPLACED WITH HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES FOR THE BEACHES.

CORRECTED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO W/W/A SECTION AND PRELIMINARY
POINT TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

...AAAHHHH: AUTUMN!...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY - WED)...WITH WILMA`S PASSAGE ENDS THE
2005 HURRICANE SEASON ACROSS THE SUNCOAST. AND THOUGH WE WERE ONLY
GRAZED BY THIS YEAR`S STORMS...THE SEASON ITSELF WILL GO DOWN TRULY
RECORD BREAKING...IN ALL SENSES OF THE WORD...FOR THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. WITH EXPECTED RAPID COOLING OF THE GULF WATERS...ANY FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY GET SHUT DOWN BY THE WATERS...SHEAR...OR
BOTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE FINAL MONTH OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON.

ANYWAY...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. FROM THE FAMILIAR FOGGED
UP WINDOWS AND THE CONSTANT HUM OF AIR CONDITIONING TO THE BLUSTERY
PUNCH OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT
ONE POINT EARLIER THIS MORNING...DECEMBER LIKE WEATHER HAS ARRIVED
LIKE A LION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH A CONTINUED BLUSTERY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING BACK TOWARD 70 BUT WITH RAPID
CLEARING UNDERWAY. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP GULF
STRATOCU AT BAY (OR SEA IF YOU WILL). STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH CONTINUE AT NOON...BUT
EXPECT THESE TO BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY 3 PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER...BUT WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 15
TO 20 MPH RANGE IN FAVORED AREAS NEAR WARMER WATER. ELSEWHERE...
VALUES SHOULD FALL TO 5 TO 10 MPH IN MANY AREAS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY FALL INTO THE WINTER-LIKE 40 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE (55 TO 60 NEAR THE WATER). WIND CHILL WILL ACTUALLY BE A
CONCERN BUT MORE FROM A RAPID CHANGE STANDPOINT...BUT VALUES WILL NOT
COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT A RATHER COOL DAY...REFRESHING
IN FACT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS FORECAST...IN THE 60S EXCEPT
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH ZONES.

WILL HOIST HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THE BEACHES THROUGH 00Z/WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

TUESDAY NIGHT SETS THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN
PREFERRED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR RURAL
SECTIONS. COULD EVEN SEE PATCHY FROST (YES, FROST!) ON CAR ROOFS
AND OTHER EXPOSED RADIATION AREAS FROM NORTHERN PASCO COUNTY
THROUGH LEVY COUNTY. WILL FORECAST UPPER 30S IN PREFERRED NATURE
COAST AND LOWER 40S OVER INTERIOR RURAL AREAS...WITH 45 TO 55
ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS FANTASTIC WITH JUST ENOUGH TEMPERATURE MODERATION
BUT STILL COOL...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 70 NORTH TO 75 OR SO
SOUTH.

HOPING TO DROP TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE (2 TO 3 PM). WILL SEND IMMEDIATE UPDATE AT THAT TIME.

ENJOY THE CHANGE!

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THRU THE WEAKEN...THEN THE PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT ZONAL BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT WILL DRIFT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MON. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE N OR NE...THUS KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. WILL LOWER VALUES DOWN CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS 20 POPS FRI TO MON. GIVEN THE DRY N TO NE FLOW...
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHRA. WILL DROP POPS
DOWN TO 10 PCT.

&&

.MARINE...WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN VALUES TO HIGH
SMALL CRAFT WITH AN EARLY UPDATE AROUND 2 PM. SEAS WILL
DROP OFF STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THEIR HURRICANE-INDUCED
HIGHS...THEN A SLOWER DROP OFF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER STILL WARM (80 DEGREES LAST CHECK)
WATERS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP INTO CAUTION RANGE
BY TUE NIGHT AND PROBABLY BELOW HIGHLIGHT LEVELS THEREAFTER.

AS FOR WINDS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE 25 TO 30 KNOTS INTO
SUNSET...THEN A SLOW DROP OFF OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 15 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO THE NORTH EXPECT A GENERAL FRESH BREEZE (GOOD FOR SAILING)
BUT NOTHING ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN. GRADIENT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT/WILMA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT...AND
EXPECTING GUSTS TO COME DOWN TO AT MOST 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AT OUR TAF
SITES. POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH CIGS WILL BE IF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN THE GULF PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATING WINDS COULD BE
ANYWHERE FROM NW TO N...WITH THE FORMER MEANING COASTAL SITES...WOULD
SEE IFR CIGS. WILL PUT SCT CLOUDS IN TAFS FOR OVERNIGHT...AND HOLD
OFF GOING WITH BKN UNTIL WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE ISSUING OUR FIRST WATCH OF THE SEASON FOR
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TUESDAY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR
TWO HOURS OF BELOW 35 PERCENT HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. FARTHER SOUTH...DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY THE GULF ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITY
AT 40 PERCENT OR A BIT HIGHER. WEDNESDAY MAY BE CLOSE AS WELL WITH
DURATIONS NEARING 4 HOURS IN SOME SPOTS. WILL ADDRESS FURTHER NEXT
FEW SHIFTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA 51 66 49 71 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 54 72 52 73 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 48 66 46 71 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 53 68 51 72 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 40 66 39 70 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL SUNSET PINELLAS...POLK...HILLSBOROUGH...
HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...MANATEE...SARASOTA...
CHARLOTTE...AND LEE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY...INCLUDING
THE SHORELINES OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...TIDAL DESOTO AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND LEVY...EASTERN
CITRUS...AND SUMTER COUNTIES.
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY FOR LEVY COUNTY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RJS





For US it seems to be

Boy that person sure could end up with egg on their face. It is ok though cause I've heard many local weatherman say the same thing.

considering the way this season has been I hope all the forcasters who said that gets fired if theres another Hurricane or landfalling TC! I think the NHC would be able to better forcast the Tropical weather then some local met! and with another pretty good looking Invest out there now it looks like the local Mets were wrong!

Nope. they said for our area "The suncoast" and if you look at conditions..they seem to be right on.