SW Indian Ocean: TD3

[P.K.]

Track

25kts, 1003hPa

06/0830 UTC 9.7S 78.4E T1.5/1.5 93S


Dimanche, 06 novembre 2005, 16h14 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

ZONE PERTURBEE 03-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA.
POSITION LE 06 NOVEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 8.6 SUD / 77.4 EST
(HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2695 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

[HURAKAN]

It should be 91S, there is no 93S in NRL.

06/1430 UTC 8.5S 76.9E T2.0/2.0 91S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

La Reunion is not projecting a lot of intensification, to say the least.

[P.K.]

I thought they had changed it to 93 given they hadn't given any estimates on 91 over the last dew days. They have changed it back to 91 now though, never sure who to believe when I look at these things and they are different.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED.

AN AREA OF CYCLING CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR 9.9S 78.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. THE CONVECTION
IS LOCATED OVER A BROAD, PRE-EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A RECENT SSM/I MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN AN AREA OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS NEARING
A RIDGE AXIS AND IS ENCOUNTERING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

TC DEVELOPMENT IS "FAIR" OVER THE NEXT 24 ACCORDING TO THE JTWC.

[HURAKAN]

BROTHER AND SISTER (91S & 02S)

[HURAKAN]

06/2030 UTC 8.6S 77.4E T2.0/2.0 91S -- South Indian Ocean

NOTHING NEW.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070151ZNOV05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 165 NM RADIUS OF 9.8S 77.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY­
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 77.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 78.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 77.3E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER A BROAD, PRE-
EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO A REDUCTION IN SHEAR AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 080151Z.//


TCFA ISSUED!

[P.K.]

Upgraded to TD3 - track

Lundi, 07 novembre 2005, 10h33 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 07 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 8.4 SUD / 77.3 EST
(HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2695 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

[SouthFloridawx]

number 3 already!!

[P.K.]

Technically this is only the second TD of the season (With TD4 being the third) but the numbering system is different for this basin.


Lundi, 07 novembre 2005, 16h24 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
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NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 07 NOVEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 9.3 SUD / 77.6 EST
(NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2670 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

[senorpepr]

I have the Meteo-France links and the floaters for 03R on the S2K Tropical page: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/

[P.K.]

Downgraded from a TD.

Mardi, 08 novembre 2005, 10h16 (UTC+4)


PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
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NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX
PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


PERTURBATION TROPICALE 03-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA.
POSITION LE 08 NOVEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 10.3 SUD / 77.3 EST
(DIX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2585 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 5 KM/H.