WTIO30 FMEE 231804
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2005/12/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 86.8E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/12/24 06 UTC: 11.1S/84.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
24H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 11.8S/82.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 13.0S/79.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.9S/77.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.6S/74.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.5S/72.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR .
UNTIL NOW, CONVECTION DID NOT CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
.
UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL.=
NNNN
SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Disturbance 6 (Former TD6)
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MiamiensisWx
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
The easterly shear is expected to decrease after 24 hours.
WTIO30 FMEE 240608
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 84.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 12.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 12.9S/81.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.3S/74.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=055KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS CYCLIC, ON
THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A
MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 240608
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2005/12/24 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 84.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/12/24 18 UTC: 12.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/12/25 06 UTC: 12.9S/81.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/12/25 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/12/26 06 UTC: 14.5S/76.8E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2005/12/26 18 UTC: 15.3S/74.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2005/12/27 06 UTC: 16.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=055KT.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS CYCLIC, ON
THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A
MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=
NNNN
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Downgraded but it is forecast to regain TD strength as the shear reduces:
Samedi, 24 décembre 2005, 16h06 (UTC+4)
BULLETIN DU 24 DECEMBRE A 16H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 DECEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 12.1 SUD / 84.2 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3175 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 22 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.6S/79.6E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.5S/75.4E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 18S/71E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE CETTE NUIT A 22H30
Samedi, 24 décembre 2005, 16h06 (UTC+4)
BULLETIN DU 24 DECEMBRE A 16H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 999 HPA.
POSITION LE 24 DECEMBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 12.1 SUD / 84.2 EST
(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3175 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 22 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.6S/79.6E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.5S/75.4E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 18S/71E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE CETTE NUIT A 22H30
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.7S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.1S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.6S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE TC 04S IS IN AN EN-
VIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS DECENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL BE INHIBITED FROM SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ITS HIGH SPEED OF MOVEMENT. A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
THE 4TH OF THE SEASON IS HERE ACCORDING TO THE JTWC!
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.7S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.1S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.6S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE TC 04S IS IN AN EN-
VIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS DECENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL BE INHIBITED FROM SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ITS HIGH SPEED OF MOVEMENT. A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
THE 4TH OF THE SEASON IS HERE ACCORDING TO THE JTWC!
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Here is a page about past cyclones from La Reunion. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/atlas_clim/SDT_memorables.htm/ It is in French though so you may want to put it through an online translator if you don't understand it.
Up to 1000hPa now.
Up to 1000hPa now.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Previous forecasts had made this a remnant low, but this one takes it back to TD strength.
Mardi, 27 décembre 2005, 10h35 (UTC+4)
BULLETIN DU 27 DECEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:
IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET SI AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES,
IL EST FORTEMENT RECOMMANDE DE SE TENIR INFORME DE L'EVOLUTION DE
LA SITUATION
*****************************************************
NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1000 HPA.
POSITION LE 27 DECEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 15.3 SUD / 69.8 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST).
DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1605 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 22 KM/H.
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.4S/65E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 16.7S/62E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 17.7S/58.9E
ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'ENREGISTREMENT REGULIER DE BULLETINS.
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