(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 0.6N 72.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. SSMI AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES
AT 300126Z AND 300136Z, RESPECTIVELY, DEPICT CONVECTION SITUATED
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A REGION OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMA-
TED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1014 MB. DUE TO LIMITED CONVECTION AND HIGH SEA LEVEL PRESSURE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
