Link between La Nina and Phillipine strikes?

[AussieMark]

Just wondering if there is any link between a first La Nina year and multiple strikes on Phillipines

1974





1984





1988




1998

[Aslkahuna]

You are WAY short on the strikes on Luzon in 1974. In October and November we had 6 typhoons, one Tropical Storm and a TD in the Philippines. The typhoons (which all hit Luzon) were Bess, Carmen, Della, Elaine, Gloria (the 1st one you show) and Irma (the second one) while the TS which hit SE Luzon was Faye. I was there for all of them. It's not so much that La Niñas support strikes in the Philippines as much as that during a Niño, the storms tend to form further to the east and track north of the Philippines while post Niño seasons tend to have lower than normal numbers of typhoons (like last year). The Philippines are just as like to get hit in a neutral year as they are during a cold phase ENSO year.

Steve

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting

[Aslkahuna]

Gloria, the strongest of the 1974 typhoons at 125kt was a large storm but Elaine was enormous. Elaine tracked across northern Luzon at about 18N and broght 65 kt winds to Manila 300 nautical miles to the south while Mactan Island had gusts to 55kt some 480 nautical miles to the south of where the center was. The eye of Irma went directly over Clark AB and was a Cat 1 hit on the base despite the wind sheltering the base gets from the terrain while Cat 2 type damage was observed away from the base.

Steve

[AussieMark]

You are WAY short on the strikes on Luzon in 1974. In October and November we had 6 typhoons, one Tropical Storm and a TD in the Philippines. The typhoons (which all hit Luzon) were Bess, Carmen, Della, Elaine, Gloria (the 1st one you show) and Irma (the second one) while the TS which hit SE Luzon was Faye. I was there for all of them. It's not so much that La Niñas support strikes in the Philippines as much as that during a Niño, the storms tend to form further to the east and track north of the Philippines while post Niño seasons tend to have lower than normal numbers of typhoons (like last year). The Philippines are just as like to get hit in a neutral year as they are during a cold phase ENSO year.

Steve

thanks

I was thinking of years where they have been hit by strong Typhoons and most have been in La Nina years thats all was wondering if there was any correlation.

I remember in 1997 there was like 12 super typhoons yet none hit the phillipines

the following year they were hammered by 2 strong ones.

Thanks steve

[Aslkahuna]

The year 1997 was a Niño year and most of the storms were well north and east of the Phillipines responding to the shift of the warmest water further to the east. The next year was a post Niño rather than Niña year (the Niña got going in 1999) and although the Philippines had two big storms the total number of WPAC storms that year was well below normal.
The shift in area of formation as well as a higher incidence of Supers followed by a down season is precisely what JTWC found in their studies of the effects of ENSO on WPAC activity-if I recall what I read correctly, they didn't find much of anything as far as Niña years are concerned.

Steve