Headlines of Sunhearld news paper today:

[MGC]

"Dodging a Bullet?"

The local paper here on the Mississippi gulf coast had the following headlines today along with a graphic of predicted hot spots for landfall in the USA. The article is the accuweather forecast and JB's is the featured forecaster. The graphic indicates that most of Louisiana, all of Mississippi and Alabama are under a moderate risk for a landfall this season.

IMO, this article is dangerous in that it might lull residents into a false sense of security in that the risk of a major landfall in this area is low. Kind of the old saying that lightning don't strike twice in the same place. Myself, I think the risk of damage is greater this season for the above named areas. Still plenty of debris laying about, many people living in FEMA trailers and still a few in tents. JB seems to believe that the EC, specifically NC is a the greatest risk of a landfalling major......MGC


http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/14588698.htm

[Opal storm]

I agree.

Their forecast is ridiculous,it's obviously a hype.They have all the East coast at very high risk and the N Gulf at low/moderate risk?

Hopefully no one takes this seriously.

[Aquawind]

This is where prognostication gets dangerous.. Those graphics are foolish eye candy. I see no reason in telling anyone their chances are more or less. It only takes ONE and NOBODY knows where that one may be.

[SouthFloridawx]

Seriously though... everyone needs to prepare. There does not need to be a graphic shown in newspapers and on tv of areas that are higher risk because you never know just how the conditions in atlantic basin/north america are going to play out that far ahead. To me it just seems as though they are trying to some subscription with fancy graphics.

[Alacane2]

I had my weekly meeting with my manager yesterday (she is in Wisconsin), and she was very excited to tell me that she heard that Alabama would not be hit by a hurricane this season. Last year, we were out of work for about 5 days (in Mobile) after Katrina. She had heard this from someone else in Mobile who had heard or seen this accuweather report in the news. I responded that it is impossible for anyone to make such a statement.

I had to give the example that a few days before Katrina hit Louisiana, the official forecast had the storm going into the panhandle. It is impossible to pinpoint a landfall location 3 days in advance, infinitely impossible to say that Alabama will not be affected by a storm this year!

[SouthFloridawx]

I had my weekly meeting with my manager yesterday (she is in Wisconsin), and she was very excited to tell me that she heard that Alabama would not be hit by a hurricane this season. Last year, we were out of work for about 5 days (in Mobile) after Katrina. She had heard this from someone else in Mobile who had heard or seen this accuweather report in the news. I responded that it is impossible for anyone to make such a statement.

I had to give the example that a few days before Katrina hit Louisiana, the official forecast had the storm going into the panhandle. It is impossible to pinpoint a landfall location 3 days in advance, infinitely impossible to say that Alabama will not be affected by a storm this year!

That is exactly what I'm talking about.

[Steve]

That is the danger and stupidity in that graphic. The video and the write-up noted that those rankings were "as compared to normal" not as compared to each other. But obviously that caveat isn't automatically assumed by the media. Shoddy journalism if you ask me.

TPS