GFS June 4 - 5 low crossing Cuba

[jrod]

In the past few hours the convection has increased. Earlier today I figured it had less than a 1% chance. Now I have to give it a less than 10% chance, still highly unlikely but the convection and 'center' of the blob appears to be a little more south and west than earlier so maybe just maybe it can bring some rain to us in Florida.

[jasons2k]

My opinion is that this low is pretty useless. The first chance for a tropical system to develop is if East Pacific TD2 dies over Mexico and it's remnants drift into the BOC in about a week or two, and start to fire up.

Welcome back!! Good to see you!

[TampaFl]

From NWS Miami:

FXUS62 KMFL 040805 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS OVER ATLC AND SE GULF OF MEX. OTHERWISE
WILDFIRES IN W BROWARD AND E COLLIER COUNTIES SPREADING SMOKE E AND
NE RESPECTIVELY AFFECTING TRAVEL ON U.S. 27 AND ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

.DISCUSSION...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER E U.S. TODAY THROUGH TUE AS
UPPER LOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY CUTOFF OVER NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLC
STATES. MYRIAD OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE FROM NW THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH
ACROSS S FLA...OR...CIRCULATE ABOUT HIGH PRES RIDGE SE OF S FLA AND
MOVE NW FROM W CARIB AND INTO FLA STRAITS TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE WED AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE FLA PENINSULA THROUGH THU BEFORE...SHIFTING NE OVER
ATLC. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE SE OF AREA REBUILDING OVER S FLA FRI INTO
SAT.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...LF QUAD OF JET MOVING
THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER S FLA TODAY WITH STEERING WINDS
STILL WESTERLY. SO...ACTIVITY AGAIN W TO E WITH INCREASING POPS W TO
E AS WELL WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG E COAST. THOUGH A WEAK 500 MB
TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS S FLA THIS MORNING...INCREASING MORNING CLOUDS
A BIT...ALSO TEMPORARILY STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. BUT BY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN...ANOTHER WEAK 500 MB TROUGH...COMBINED WITH
THE JET...DESTABILIZES THINGS AGAIN. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN
GUIDANCE E COAST THOUGH LOWER INTERIOR AND W. SIMILAR PATTERN MON
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER AREA AND THEREFORE POPS LOWER. TEMP
GUIDANCE OK.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...QUICKSCAT WINDS STILL INDICATE LOW LEVEL CIRCU
-LATION OVER EXTREME SW CARIB. SYSTEM SO FAR S THOUGH THAT THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY NOT CATCH SYSTEM AND MOVE IT NE AS BOLDLY AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FROM THE SW CARIB INTO THE
BAHAMAS E OF AREA AND MAIN PRECIP E OF TROUGH LINE AS WELL. THUS...
MINIMAL TO NIL POPS POSSIBLE TUE AND WED. ESE WIND FLOW REDEVELOPS
THU INTO THE WEEKEND...INCREASING MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
POPS AS WELL. &&
.MARINE...WINDS PERSISTENTLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH PERIOD.
INITIALLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MON NIGHT...SHIFTING EASTERLY
TUE INTO WED DUE TO TROUGH DEVELOPMENT TO E.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS/CONCERNS THOUGH SOME HUMIDITIES EDGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW INTERIOR.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 74 89 71 / 50 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 76 88 74 / 50 20 20 10
MIAMI 90 75 89 74 / 50 20 20 10
NAPLES 86 75 87 72 / 30 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[CHRISTY]

Interesting.....

[weatherwoman132]

yeah, that's interesting.

[Taffy]

Can somebody translate that for me, please.?

[SouthFloridawx]

EXTENDED PERIOD...QUICKSCAT WINDS STILL INDICATE LOW LEVEL CIRCU
-LATION OVER EXTREME SW CARIB. SYSTEM SO FAR S THOUGH THAT THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY NOT CATCH SYSTEM AND MOVE IT NE AS BOLDLY AS
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

That is an interesting quote from that disco. Seems as though it was too far south to be picked up by the trough.

It looks like it will be drug northward but slowly as the stearing flow is not as strong as it is to the east and to the north.

Will it move into the EPAC or move slowly northward into the Northwestern Carribbean sea in a few days?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

EDIT: to change the wording from northeastern to northwestern.

[Extremeweatherguy]

very interesting, hopefully we do not see this thing move into the NW Carrib. and sit!

[gatorcane]

and it has gone poof!

[wxman57]

Stick a fork in it..... Next!

[Rainband]

Stick a fork in it..... Next!