SOI drop a signal of....?

[hurricanetrack]

Ok, just looking at the SOI plot from BOM Australia:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi30.png

Look closely at the line. We see a drop in the SOI at about the same time each year during 2004 and 2005- right as the hurricane season starts.

In 2004 it dropped significantly in May and crept back up. In 2005, it dropped in April and then crept back up. Both seasons saw a lot of landfalls in the following months of August/September/October (not 2004). So, the SOI has just dropped again, right at the start of THIS season. Does it mean something related to possible U.S. landfalls later this season? I know I am just talking about two years here, but hey, this might be something- it might not be. I thought it was interesting.

[MiamiensisWx]

Very interesting, Mark. The SOI drop now resembles 2004's drop rather closely.

By the way, did years such as 1996 and 1999 also feature something similar to this in the SOI?

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, could this be a potential indicator - along with other factors - that we might see a favor for eastern coast landfalls to be aimed at the Carolinas and central and southeast Florida, due to a favorable setup of steering patterns, the Bermuda-Azores High, and other factors?

Going to be a VERY interesting year. Can someone answer this question?

I also think that this SOI could be lining up with other factors that may prove to be the kick for an start of an El Nino next year. Could 2004 be an example? Who agrees? Any thoughts on this?

[MiamiensisWx]

Any thoughts?

I think this has actually be discussed by professionals once. Any thoughts on my questions and what I said above?

[CHRISTY]

PROMETS WERE ARE U....

[senorpepr]

Personally, I wouldn't get wrapped up over the short-term peaks and lulls. These are most likely associated with other global oscillations. What I would be more focused on is the long term trends -- the result after smoothing the peaks and lulls every few weeks. By doing that, it shows a slow upward trend starting in late 2004 and possibly peaking a couple of months ago.

It this trend did truely peak recently, we could be seeing warmer Pacific waters to come and less Atlantic activity. If by early July, this SOI is in the upper teens or low 20s, we could see something similiar to 2005 (although probably less storms). However, if they don't raise as quickly, I'd say a season like 2003 or 2004 is more in order. (in terms of storm frequency -- not in terms of landfalls)

[CHRISTY]

Personally, I wouldn't get wrapped up over the short-term peaks and lulls. These are most likely associated with other global oscillations. What I would be more focused on is the long term trends -- the result after smoothing the peaks and lulls every few weeks. By doing that, it shows a slow upward trend starting in late 2004 and possibly peaking a couple of months ago.

It this trend did truely peak recently, we could be seeing warmer Pacific waters to come and less Atlantic activity. If by early July, this SOI is in the upper teens or low 20s, we could see something similiar to 2005 (although probably less storms). However, if they don't raise as quickly, I'd say a season like 2003 or 2004 is more in order. (in terms of storm frequency -- not in terms of landfalls)

u mean track wise or numbers of storms?numbers right.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I wouldn't get wrapped up over the short-term peaks and lulls. These are most likely associated with other global oscillations. What I would be more focused on is the long term trends -- the result after smoothing the peaks and lulls every few weeks. By doing that, it shows a slow upward trend starting in late 2004 and possibly peaking a couple of months ago.

It this trend did truely peak recently, we could be seeing warmer Pacific waters to come and less Atlantic activity. If by early July, this SOI is in the upper teens or low 20s, we could see something similiar to 2005 (although probably less storms). However, if they don't raise as quickly, I'd say a season like 2003 or 2004 is more in order. (in terms of storm frequency -- not in terms of landfalls)

Good points, Mike... thanks for posting this.

[senorpepr]

Personally, I wouldn't get wrapped up over the short-term peaks and lulls. These are most likely associated with other global oscillations. What I would be more focused on is the long term trends -- the result after smoothing the peaks and lulls every few weeks. By doing that, it shows a slow upward trend starting in late 2004 and possibly peaking a couple of months ago.

It this trend did truely peak recently, we could be seeing warmer Pacific waters to come and less Atlantic activity. If by early July, this SOI is in the upper teens or low 20s, we could see something similiar to 2005 (although probably less storms). However, if they don't raise as quickly, I'd say a season like 2003 or 2004 is more in order. (in terms of storm frequency -- not in terms of landfalls)

u mean track wise or numbers of storms?numbers right.

[hurricanetrack]

I am certainly interested in those cyclones that make landfall. While it is interesting to see 28 named storms, very interesting, it was MORE important how many hit land. A season like 2003, 1996, 2004 or 1999 would be quite devastating considering what those years had. And we must not forget that hurricanes hitting huge population centers like Miami or Norfolk or Houston, etc. would have severe consequences. Lastly, one cannot rule out a Donna like hurricane that affects an entire lenth of coastline. That, by the way, would be my ultimate mission: starting in the FL Keys and ending in Cape Cod or Rhode Island for the SAME hurricane. Might happen- might not. We'll see.

[caribepr]

For anyone like myself, interested in weather but not as deeply into the science of meteorology as some here, this is a page I found to tell me what the heck SOI meant (seemingly the new acronym of the season!)...it's got lots more great info, but the glossary is really helpful and simple to use.

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/

[CHRISTY]

For anyone like myself, interested in weather but not as deeply into the science of meteorology as some here, this is a page I found to tell me what the heck SOI meant (seemingly the new acronym of the season!)...it's got lots more great info, but the glossary is really helpful and simple to use.

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/

thanks for that link...

[caribepr]

Da nada. I love Google!

[benny]

Generally during ASO a positive SOI correlates with more landfalls.. the relationship isn't as strong beforehand.

['CaneFreak]

I am certainly interested in those cyclones that make landfall. While it is interesting to see 28 named storms, very interesting, it was MORE important how many hit land. A season like 2003, 1996, 2004 or 1999 would be quite devastating considering what those years had. And we must not forget that hurricanes hitting huge population centers like Miami or Norfolk or Houston, etc. would have severe consequences. Lastly, one cannot rule out a Donna like hurricane that affects an entire lenth of coastline. That, by the way, would be my ultimate mission: starting in the FL Keys and ending in Cape Cod or Rhode Island for the SAME hurricane. Might happen- might not. We'll see.

That would definitely be interesting Mark....hope this comes true as well....that would be absolutely thrilling....