Favorable conditons seem to be in place for tropical development and they should only get better during the next 2-3 days. But the current behavior of the MJO is making it difficult me to figure out where. The last update on the 16th had it at phase 1. But the amplitude was less than 1.0.
It could easily be in phase 2 already. The dilemma here is the low amplitude. The regional phase biases are not as strong when the amplitude falls below 1.0 .
So this makes it difficult to narrow in on a region.
There is currently a wave well to the south of Hawaii and it seems to have some spin to it. I have to seriously wonder if this is going to be a our next tropical system to form.
Jim
Is a system going to form in the Central Pacific?
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Jim Hughes
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I have to vote for a strong NO. I just don't see how anything will develop in the CPAC. I honestly don't know why you think the conditions will be positive for development for the next few days. The only place in the CPAC where shear is below 30kt is south of 8°N -- which with the lack of coriolis, that doesn't help. Yes, there is some convection along the tradewide trough, but nothing to raise my freak flag over it.
Outside of the area south of 8°N, the only other area is east of Hawai'i, but the easterlies are much too strong there, the subsidense is much too great there (evident from all the stratocumulus on satellite), and the water is much too cool there.
I say... look elsewhere.
Outside of the area south of 8°N, the only other area is east of Hawai'i, but the easterlies are much too strong there, the subsidense is much too great there (evident from all the stratocumulus on satellite), and the water is much too cool there.
I say... look elsewhere.
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Jim Hughes
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senorpepr wrote:I have to vote for a strong NO. I just don't see how anything will develop in the CPAC. I honestly don't know why you think the conditions will be positive for development for the next few days. The only place in the CPAC where shear is below 30kt is south of 8°N -- which with the lack of coriolis, that doesn't help. Yes, there is some convection along the tradewide trough, but nothing to raise my freak flag over it.
Outside of the area south of 8°N, the only other area is east of Hawai'i, but the easterlies are much too strong there, the subsidense is much too great there (evident from all the stratocumulus on satellite), and the water is much too cool there.
I say... look elsewhere.
Thanks Mike. I know this area is not a good place to look for formation. The wave I happened to notice this afternoon just had a nice spin to it.
We have been under the influence of a coronal windstream the prior few days and space weather conditions are becoming much more favorable for tropical development. The current weakness in the MJO is making it difficult to allocate an area to watch.
I would feel real comfortable in forecasting development for a particular region, whether it be the WPAC, EPAC or the ATL, if the MJO phase was not so close to being below the 1.0 amplitude.
So I will keep my eyes open for the next 2-3 days. The window is usually there for about 72 hours. IMHO that the GCR levels will be the key here. The higher the better.
BTW here's another research paper in regards to the possible space weather relationship with the tropics. This is all indirectly related with my own theories. I actually give more specifics in regards to certain particle levels and the importance of their values.
It is a fascinating read.
" Hurricane intensity changes associated with geomagnetic variations"
http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/PDF ... ov2001.pdf
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