GFS/CMC showing possible TC development at 72-90hrs...
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GFS/CMC showing possible TC development at 72-90hrs...
What do you think? Latest model runs showing a possible TC developing SW of Bermuda heading into the SE coast...
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HurricaneHunter914
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Both are pretty good models. I think they might be right because one shear is decreasing and pretty low dry air right now.
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cycloneye
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A link please is needed.
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SouthFloridawx
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ya know I was just going to post something about that.
I think we should watch the waters near the bahamas past 90 hours and into days 4 and 5. I'm not saying we'll definitely see devolopment but, the models are showing lower pressures and vorticity in this area past 90 hours. This is in no way a forecast and I am simply posting what I have noticed from the forecast models. Let's see what happens..
I think we should watch the waters near the bahamas past 90 hours and into days 4 and 5. I'm not saying we'll definitely see devolopment but, the models are showing lower pressures and vorticity in this area past 90 hours. This is in no way a forecast and I am simply posting what I have noticed from the forecast models. Let's see what happens..
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Extremeweatherguy
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SouthFloridawx wrote:ya know I was just going to post something about that.
I think we should watch the waters near the bahamas past 90 hours and into days 4 and 5. I'm not saying we'll definitely see devolopment but, the models are showing lower pressures and vorticity in this area past 90 hours.
[img]
http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgen ... /slp24.png[/img]
[img]http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgengifs/avn/2006061818//850vort24.png
[/img]
[img]
http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgen ... /slp24.png[/img]
neither of these maps show a TC. In fact, the most I can see is a 1014mb low on the GFS. That is a VERY weak low. It would need to be showing at least 1004mb for me to consider a TC possible.
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SouthFloridawx
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neither of these maps show a TC. In fact, the most I can see is a 1014mb low on the GFS. That is a VERY weak low. It would need to be showing at least 1004mb for me to consider a TC possible.
I was not saying there was going to be development... I simply stated that this may be an area to watch in a few days from now. I never pointed out there was a cyclone out there.
I fixed the bad links for the images above.
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Whoa, with the High positioned there that will bring a TC right into an area between Florida and North Carolina.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Extremeweatherguy
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SouthFloridawx wrote:neither of these maps show a TC. In fact, the most I can see is a 1014mb low on the GFS. That is a VERY weak low. It would need to be showing at least 1004mb for me to consider a TC possible.
I was not saying there was going to be development... I simply stated that this may be an area to watch in a few days from now. I never pointed out there was a cyclone out there.
I fixed the bad links for the images above.
I was responding more to the creator of this thread who said that the CMC and GFS were showing a TC.
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SouthFloridawx
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Extremeweatherguy
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I wouldn't get my hopes up. Looking at the 72 hr. surface forecast from the NHC, anything that forms will likely stay in the Caribbean.HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Whoa, with the High positioned there that will bring a TC right into an area between Florida and North Carolina.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
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Extremeweatherguy
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SouthFloridawx
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from the NOGAPS thread
Vortex wrote:12Z Nogaps brings organized convection E of the northern Bahamas to a position over southern Florida in 5-6 days.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006061812
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spinfan4eva
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It is my understanding that these models do not consider climatology...the old models which were purely "climo" models are outdated and are far inferior to the models which look at actual data vs. what the storm "should do"...storms "can" develop in this area (water temps will support them)...If we disregarded models based on climatology, then we could have easily missed Dennis's intensity last year (Cat 4's "don't" form in July)...
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