95E Invest at EPAC

[HurricaneHunter914]

Doesn't look like a big candidate for being Bud but you never know.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Cycloneye I have to disagree with 100%.

[clfenwi]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N117W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN BANDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
WITHIN 240 NM IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SYSTEM EMBEDDED
IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT APPROACHING AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE AT UPPER LEVELS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SYSTEMS
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 202215
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT TUE JUN 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
TODAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 202251Z JUN 06//
WTPN21 PGTW 202300
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 115.5W TO 14.9N 123.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 116.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212230Z.
//




On the virge of becoming a TD.



Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Graphic

[HURAKAN]

1 ..... 2 ..... 3 ..... POOF!!!!

Infared Image EPAC

Visible Image EPAC

Rainbow Image EPAC

[cycloneye]

Sandy,smaller images,remember. I made hypertext links for them.

About the system it has a nice circulation,however convection is not abundant.

[P.K.]

WHXX04 KWBC 210538
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95E

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 116.7 290./ 8.0
6 12.6 117.4 288./ 7.9
12 12.9 118.5 288./10.6
18 13.2 119.5 287./10.4
24 13.4 120.5 283./10.3
30 13.9 121.6 293./11.1
36 14.1 123.0 278./13.8
42 14.0 124.2 267./11.8
48 14.0 125.5 270./12.4
54 14.2 126.6 277./11.3
60 14.0 127.7 262./10.3
66 14.2 128.7 278./ 9.6
72 14.2 129.4 271./ 7.6
78 14.3 130.4 277./ 8.8
84 14.3 131.5 271./10.8
90 14.3 132.8 270./12.5
96 14.2 133.9 268./11.2
102 14.2 135.0 271./10.2
108 14.2 136.4 269./14.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 108 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[HURAKAN]

If convection doesn't come back soon, this system is a goner!!!

[Aquawind]

Whimpy.. Not writing it off yet though..

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211022
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT WED JUN 21 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EVEN THOUGH
LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 211614
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT WED JUN 21 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/vis.jpg

I know a lot of people put some faith on this system but, as of now, it's a goner!!!

[cycloneye]

Dead,alive,dead,alive,dead,alive................. It has been a rollercoaster this system that sometimes looks dead and in other instances looks like it will be a cyclone.But now it seems that the final rip will be there as it moves into a more stable enviroment.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 211821Z JUN 06//
WTPN21 PGTW 211830
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202221Z JUN 06//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 202230)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS:
THIS CANCELS REF A.
//



Here is the final epilog. RattleMan,really this invest has been a crazy one.