Convection Near Bahamas

[Derek Ortt]

my week-end would be just as lost... was planning on a day of relaxation in the Keys. Looks like that will be another day

[cycloneye]

Who do you have to email at the NOAA Satellite and Information Service to request a Floater change? They have 4 floaters....one could at least be over this area of interest.

Dont worrie too much about that as tonight or tommorow morning 91L for sure will be up.

[Brent]

Well our local met actually used the name Beryl a few times when talking about this on the news. I still am not impressed with it though... extremely disorganized, but stranger things have happened.

[wxman57]

For whomever posted the steering currents map earlier, that map is valid only for today. The east coast steering will be changing significantly over the next 24-48 hours as that ridge slips off to the east and a trof digs southward toward the region. Here's the mid level steering currents (400-700mb or aboug 10,000-20,000 ft) valid for Saturday:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas2.gif

Note the upper-level low over Florida. Any surface low would be to the northeast of the upper low center. It would also be a hybrid-type low, not purely tropical, like Alberto was. Such lows don't carry their stronger winds down to the surface as well as purely tropical lows.

[whereverwx]

I have to say, I was a bit surprised when I saw its structure, but I hope it doesn’t develop. I’m sick of looking at sat loops!!!

[wxman57]

my week-end would be just as lost... was planning on a day of relaxation in the Keys. Looks like that will be another day

Derek, can you stop by the NHC tomorrow and ask them nicely to just ignore this system over the weekend since it'll most likely just bring beneficial rain to Florida and not be a real wind or surge threat? Maybe they'll just turn their backs on it and let us have the weekend off?

[bvigal]

It's already on the southwest side of the Bermuda High. With an upper-level low to its southwest, a WNW to NW motion is most likely. Shear still looks to be very strong, though, as strong as yesterday or stronger.

I've a question, too wxman57.

Am I misinterpreting this map, from 2100UTC:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
which shows shear at 5kts over this thing?

[CHRISTY]

For whomever posted the steering currents map earlier, that map is valid only for today. The east coast steering will be changing significantly over the next 24-48 hours as that ridge slips off to the east and a trof digs southward toward the region. Here's the mid level steering currents (400-700mb or aboug 10,000-20,000 ft) valid for Saturday:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas2.gif

Note the upper-level low over Florida. Any surface low would be to the northeast of the upper low center. It would also be a hybrid-type low, not purely tropical, like Alberto was. Such lows don't carry their stronger winds down to the surface as well as purely tropical lows.

it was me wxman57...it was my first time!anyway u have the the LOW down by south florida,tropical or hybrid type what ever it ends up being on that map it looks like it will affect south florida with some kind of weather iam i correct?

[Rainband]

my week-end would be just as lost... was planning on a day of relaxation in the Keys. Looks like that will be another day

Derek, can you stop by the NHC tomorrow and ask them nicely to just ignore this system over the weekend since it'll most likely just bring beneficial rain to Florida and not be a real wind or surge threat? Maybe they'll just turn their backs on it and let us have the weekend off?

I think calling the NHC "alarmists" sets a dangerous precedent coming from a "pro" met. Imho it was a bad choice of words. In My opinion after last year we saw how bad complacency was/is. A comment from a "pro" Met like that only serves to increase that complacency and diminish the authority and effectiveness of this Official Organization.

[jaxfladude]

Locking thread in...........................if the 25 page limt is still in effect........