Northwest Carib. Disturbance

[no advance]

Looks more impressive than our system in the Bahamas. Any thoughts tonight as it moves WNlW or NW.

[skysummit]

I don't see any disturbance in the NW Carribean...just the wave that's moving inland over Central America.

[Rainband]

I don't see any disturbance in the NW Carribean...just the wave that's moving inland over Central America.

I agree

[CHRISTY]

That disturbance seems to moving west so iam not expecting much.

[hriverajr]

That disturbance seems to moving west so iam not expecting much.

I have to agree with no advance. I think it is going advance into the BOC. At least part of it is .. and their seems to be high pressure aloft.

[SouthFloridawx]

NHC indicates in the TWD graphic that a Tropical Wave is approaching that area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT ENHANCING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 82W-86W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

24 Hour Forecast - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[hriverajr]

What could possibly happen is a piece of it breaks off or/and you have a moisture surge to the north. I give that about a 50/50 chance of that h appening. As far as any development is whole other story contigent on the first prediction happening.
I have seen it happen before.

[rolltide]

What could possibly happen is a piece of it breaks off or/and you have a moisture surge to the north. I give that about a 50/50 chance of that h appening. As far as any development is whole other story contigent on the first prediction happening.
I have seen it happen before.

I agree that the northern part of the wave may split off heading NW while the southern part heads west in the EPAC. We see in the next few days I guess.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If JB is right, then a trough split combined with a more north-tracked wave train will lead to the possibility of something developing toward the middle to later part of next week in the Gulf (west of 90W).

[SouthFloridawx]

If JB is right, then a trough split combined with a more north-tracked wave train will lead to the possibility of something developing toward the middle to later part of next week in the Gulf (west of 90W).

Is that the trough he is refering to?

[Extremeweatherguy]

If JB is right, then a trough split combined with a more north-tracked wave train will lead to the possibility of something developing toward the middle to later part of next week in the Gulf (west of 90W).

Is that the trough he is refering to?

No, I don't think so, but the waves that are down there now may be a sign of what to expect entering the gulf and meeting up with the trough split he is expecting next week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Here is the 72 hr. surface forecast. I think the trough JB may be talking about is the one dipicted in the central Gulf (or it could be the one further west over TX as it moves east?). Also, take a look at the two impressive waves on the map...one in the Caribbean and one east of the islands. Looks like as this all meets up in 4-8 days, there could be a chance of development.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

Here is the 72 hr. surface forecast. I think the trough JB may be talking about is the one dipicted in the central Gulf (or it could be the one further west over TX as it moves east?). Also, take a look at the two impressive waves on the map...one in the Caribbean and one east of the islands. Looks like as this all meets up in 4-8 days, there could be a chance of development.

good stuff thanks for answering my question.

[no advance]

Is this the wave that went through the leewards about five days ago. Looks like it has really flared up. Thankfully it is near land. Water is warm could be a epac storm. ASP surf tour is near Puerto Escondido right now hopefully they continue to get excellent weather. http://www.aspworldtour.com/ripcurlpro/ The waves for the tournament have been incredible courtisey of a south pac winter storm.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

If this does make its way into the EPAC without getting detereorated, could it have the chance to become a TD or possible TS?