Long Range Forecast Model Discussion Thread

boca · #81 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:33 pm

I tell ya I'm not going to believe these models until I see thunderstorms develop and start moving counterclockwise. I'm really sick of these models. I said this in another thread the models are like the story of the boy who cried wolf or your security alarm going off by accident.

CHRISTY · #82 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:42 pm

boca wrote:I tell ya I'm not going to believe these models until I see thunderstorms develop and start moving counterclockwise. I'm really sick of these models. I said this in another thread the models are like the story of the boy who cried wolf or your security alarm going off by accident.

boca get use to it there will many more false alarms or fantasy storms if u wanna call them that.

#83 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:44 pm

boca wrote:I tell ya I'm not going to believe these models until I see thunderstorms develop and start moving counterclockwise. I'm really sick of these models. I said this in another thread the models are like the story of the boy who cried wolf or your security alarm going off by accident.

Some people like to look at these long range runs, and some don't. This thread is primarily for those who like them....and I agree with Christy, they'll be many more false alarms.

boca · #84 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:47 pm

I really do like to look at long range models but its a double edge sword. I wish they were more accurate thats all especially for those in the Katrina and Rita ravaged areas because I know people get really nervous up there since last year.

ronjon · #85 Postby **ronjon** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 6:08 am

00Z CMC continues its run of a major storm moving northward into the GOM. Seem the NAM and this model are holding tough on possible development. Well, the 00Z NOGAPS now shows a weaker surface low in the central GOM at 144 hrs so we may be on the something here. Stay Tuned.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... sf&tau=144

Extremeweatherguy · #86 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 8:17 am

ronjon wrote:00Z CMC continues its run of a major storm moving northward into the GOM. Seem the NAM and this model are holding tough on possible development. Well, the 00Z NOGAPS now shows a weaker surface low in the central GOM at 144 hrs so we may be on the something here. Stay Tuned.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... sf&tau=144

what a horrible scenario this would be. First off, it would be way to close to Houston for Comfort. Second off it will also be way to close to New Orleans. The media would go crazy if this happened. The good news is that only 4 storms in history have crossed from the Pacific to the Atlantic.

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 07, 2006 12:35 pm

12z GFS Loop at 384 hours

:uarrow:

This loop at 384 hours shows a series of waves traveling thru the Atlantic with the most significant one at the last frame on the 23rd over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.Of course is a waaaaaaaaay's out so no truth has to be payed to this but we can look at the trends in the next few days at long range to see if the same thing shows up.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:30 am

6z GFS at 384 Hours

This run at 384 hours shows a low midway between Africa and the Windward Islands on the 24th.But as I haved said before in this thread it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay's off to consider this a a stone thing.Looking at the future runs will show a trend about showing this consistently or dropping it.

rockyman · #89 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:49 am

Anyone notice the 00z Euro forming a closed low over (fairly strong) over Key West and moving it up toward the Eastern Florida Panhandle around Days 6 and 7:

http://tinyurl.com/mw5md

Extremeweatherguy · #90 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:52 am

neither of those lows on the 00Z Euro look strong at all. Compare them to the low just of the NW coast of the U.S. and you will see what I mean.

x-y-no · #91 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:54 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:neither of those lows on the 00Z Euro look strong at all. Compare them to the low just of the NW coast of the U.S. and you will see what I mean.

Agree.

#92 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 24, 2006 12:19 am

Other than the NOGAPS, GFS, and Canadian all showing a storm in the Atlantic next week, the 6/23 12z NOGAPS also shows possible BOC development.

Cyclenall · #93 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jun 24, 2006 12:42 am

skysummit wrote:Other than the NOGAPS, GFS, and Canadian all showing a storm in the Atlantic next week, the 6/23 12z NOGAPS also shows possible BOC development.

So the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season would be doing the same thing as the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season step by step? Bret last year formed near there and the date was June 28. If that really happens, this season is going to start turning into 2005!!

#94 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 24, 2006 12:47 am

Cyclenall wrote:
skysummit wrote: So the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season would be doing the same thing as the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season step by step? Bret last year formed near there and the date was June 28. If that really happens, this season is going to start turning into 2005!!

Just think if that fish storm also forms. If everything goes according to the models, it'll likely be Beryl by the end of next week, and if the BOC plays out and gets a name, that'll be 3 named storms by the beginning of July??? (that's also saying if AL91 does nothing!)

About the BOC, I haven't seen any other models show the same thing yet though.

Long Range Forecast Model Discussion Thread

Who is online