UL winds & Convection:Low Forming in North East Gulf?

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Check out the loop with the Satellite wind overlays. It is indicating an Upper Low forming south of the MS/AL Border. Convections is also beggining to fire. Comments on what is happening here?

[Portastorm]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.php?mode=newtopic&f=31

Check out the loop with the Satellite wind overlays. It is indicating an Upper Low forming south of the MS/AL Border. Convections is also beggining to fire. Comments on what is happening here?

Yup, should be a Cat-5 within 48 hours and moving towards Houston!

No, all kidding aside, NHC's morning discussion refers to a broad area of low pressure "closing off" in the NE Gulf. That's probably the deal here. One thing is for sure, it appears the lid on the Gulf is coming off and we should see more convective activity this week.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.php?mode=newtopic&f=31

Check out the loop with the Satellite wind overlays. It is indicating an Upper Low forming south of the MS/AL Border. Convections is also beggining to fire. Comments on what is happening here?

Yup, should be a Cat-5 within 48 hours and moving towards Houston!

No, all kidding aside, NHC's morning discussion refers to a broad area of low pressure "closing off" in the NE Gulf. That's probably the deal here. One thing is for sure, it appears the lid on the Gulf is coming off and we should see more convective activity this week.

Is this the same thing Joe B was talking about recently, a cut off low in the Gulf?

[Portastorm]

Could be ... HouTXmetro ... could be.

He's been bullish on a piece of the trough passing through the central part of the US cutting off, backing SW into the Gulf and merging with energy coming out of the Carribbean to present a potential Western GOM threat.

In his morning discussion today, he is "concerned" about mid to latter part of this week.

[HouTXmetro]

Could be ... HouTXmetro ... could be.

He's been bullish on a piece of the trough passing through the central part of the US cutting off, backing SW into the Gulf and merging with energy coming out of the Carribbean to present a potential Western GOM threat.

In his morning discussion today, he is "concerned" about mid to latter part of this week.

Thanks for the info Porta, I'll be watching.

[HouTXmetro]

Hmmm.... the latest NOAA satellite overlay is depicting a 1009mb low in the NE Gulf... is a 1009mb low something to watch?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

If you look at the water vapor loop you see a middle to upper-level low in the North Central GOM. This is also mentioned in TPC morning discussion in the GOM section. Seems to be a seperate feature from 91L.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN POINT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. REACHES
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE EASTERN SECTION IS DOMINATED BY
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N87W. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

This low may need to be watched, but I think the bigger story will come when the activity in the NW Caribbean meets up with a splitting trough in the Western GOM. JB mentioned last night that the overall pattern is similar to what spawned Hurricane Alice in 1954.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png
^^Alice track^^

I just hope that with warmer waters that we do not see something worse than Alice, and I especially hope we do not see a system form further north. The next few days should be interesting.

[Yankeegirl]

I kind of miss the rain... I would like some more...

[Swimdude]

I can't help but think that there's SO MUCH, yet, at the same time, SO LITTLE to talk about in the Atlantic right now. About 16 areas of low pressures, or forming low pressures, or messes of convection or blobs - but nothing REALLY happening.

[jasons2k]

I'm afraid the lid won't stay closed for much longer. I am concerned with the repositioning of the ridge over the SE and with the NW Caribbean - GOM possibly opening up later this week/weekend, we could be looking at a window of a couple of weeks where we really need to watch it here in TX.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm afraid the lid won't stay closed for much longer. I am concerned with the repositioning of the ridge over the SE and with the NW Caribbean - GOM possibly opening up later this week/weekend, we could be looking at a window of a couple of weeks where we really need to watch it here in TX.

I agree. I also think that it is not impossible that the TX coast could have a TS or Hurricane threat within the next 7 days!

BTW: JB's evening post says that his idea of a system developing in the western Gulf later this week is unchanged. He also said he will post more about this in coming days.

All these signs point to a 'close watch' period from this Wednesday until the following Wednesday for a possible big event west of 90W.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those in SE Texas: Here is a look at a few memorable storms to have affected the SE Texas coast during July:

1901 - Tropical storm into Matagorda. Crops damaged by wind/rain.

1909 - Cat. 3 Hurricane into Freeport. 10 foot surge. 41 killed.

1933 - Tropical storm just east of Matagorda. Dropped over a foot of rain in many places.

1934 - Category 1/2 Hurricane into Aransas pass. 19 killed.

1943 - Category 1/2 (but probably a 3) Hurricane into the Bolivar Peninsula. Wind gusts hit 104mph in Texas city and 132mph in Houston. Some places saw 18" of rain. This is also known as the "secret" Hurricane.

1959 - Category 1 Hurricane Debra hits just east of Freeport (moving north). Debra brought hurricane force winds over 100 miles inland and through Houston.

1979 - Tropical Storm Claudette hits near Beaumont. She dropped up to 30-40" of rain.

1995 - Tropical Storm Dean made landfall near Freeport spawning 2 tornadoes and dropping 15" of rain.

2003 - Hurricane Claudette slams Port O' Conner as a strong Category 1 storm. This resulted in major beach erosion and over 1700 damaged homes and businesses. Gusts topped 80mph in Victoria, TX, and 100mph at the coast.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/stories/hur ... dette.html

[Stratosphere747]

I'm one of many here in SE Texas.

Five hurricanes in over 105 years by your estimation...

Not a good statistical indicator of our possible threat..


Just curious why you would have a reason, albeit "not impossible" we could have a hurricane threat in seven (7) days?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm one of many here in SE Texas.

Five hurricanes in over 105 years by your estimation...

Not a good statistical indicator of our possible threat..


Just curious why you would have a reason, albeit "not impossible" we could have a hurricane threat in seven (7) days?

I think it is very possible (not necessarily for Galveston/Houston in particular), because of the following reasons:

-Moisture should increase in the western and central Gulf.
-Water temperatures are warmer than normal.
-JB has referenced to Hurricane Alice (which hit S. Texas/N. Mexico) as something that occurred during a similar pattern.
-A trough split will help fuel development.
-Steering patterns would favor a Mexico or Texas hit.
-JB thinks the area of the Gulf west of 90W could be of concern later this week.

Keep this in mind though....I never said that I "expected" a hurricane to hit the Texas coast within a week. All I said was that it would not be impossible for there to be a Tropical storm OR Hurricane threat within 7 days. Also, I am in no way targeting Houston. I only posted those previous storms to give people in SE Texas an idea of what has happened during the past, and what July is capable of.