Split from 93L thread - this season vs. 2005

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This needs to become Beryl if this season wents to keep with 2005. The engine is going to have to go into over drive to keep up.

[Jim Cantore]

we are on pace with 2005, however if we dont get something by tommorow that will change

[Cyclenall]

I would just go look last year today to find out if we are on track with 2005 (in the forum). Bret came out of nowhere I think.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bret came from a tropical wave that cross into the BOC. Which poped its head out of into the BOC. The system over the central Atlatnic is about as organized as Bret with a defiend LLC. Even so Bret did have more convection. Its easy to get a cyclone in the BOC or Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. But east of the islands this time of the year forget about it.

[Thunder44]

I wish people stop trying to compare this season with 2005. That was an extreme season. So chances are that we aren't going to see a season like that again. Nevertheless, 15 named storms is still a very active season in itself.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes 15 named storms is a very active season. In the overall enviroment is not very faverable like it was last season. There is alot strong Tutt this year/ULLs. But it is still interesting to try to see if it fellows 2005. Even so its not like it. On the other hand theres a good many organize waves even so theres unfaverable upper levels. Which is of interest.

[TS Zack]

I would have to disagree. Maybe we might not see another season with 28 named storms but 15 is a little conservative. Eventually all these invests will translate to storms down the road.

This year is exactly like 2005 and it will not surprise me if we surpass 20 named storms again. Can't always go by history, you must think out of the box the past few years.

[Grease Monkey]

Also, how many years of recorded history are you basing an extreme season on? About 150 years because if so, how do we really know what an extreme season could really be like?

[Thunder44]

Yes 15 named storms is a very active season. In the overall enviroment is not very faverable like it was last season. There is alot strong Tutt this year/ULLs. But it is still interesting to try to see if it fellows 2005. Even so its not like it. On the other hand theres a good many organize waves even so theres unfaverable upper levels. Which is of interest.

Yeah, but it's too early to come to conclusions about this season. It's really normal that conditions are generally unfavorable throughout the Atlantic Basin at this time of year.

[arcticfire]

I find it continualy amusing that people keep using the past static numbers to try and predict current events in a dynamic system.

Figure it out people , what happened in the past century storm # wise is not only illrelavent , but is statisticly a laughable sample size when speaking of part of a worldwide system.

What happened in 19xx whatever year you want to pick , or range of years has absolutly no bearing on what is going on today. 2005 is actually a much better year to try and draw some semi-accurate expectations from because unlike the 20th century it actually had a similar environment.

Plese try and remember , this is weather , a dynamic and chaotic system that is controlled by factors we barely have a fundamental understanding of. This year or next could suddenly start having 40+ hurricains and for all we know thats normal and we were just in a 500 year dry spell. I'm exagerating but stop calling 2005 "extreme" or "freak" , people said the same thing in 2004 , then 2005 was worse , 2006 shows no signs of suddenly bucking the current trend.

[Thunder44]

My point is if this season does turn out be less active than 2005, people shouldn't be suprised we didn't repeat it again this year. I didn't mean to start a discussion about anything further than that.