Seems like it should never have been classified in the first place; unfortunately, it was "missed" by the two passes yesterday, and there are no ships near the system.
But the morning QUIKSCAT not only didn't have any west winds at all on the south side of the system, it actually had a less-sharp wave than the last QS pass to hit the system two days ago.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ ... thumb.html
Quikscat: "TD2" A pretty-open open wave......
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- Stormsfury
- Category 5
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- The_Cycloman_PR
- Category 1
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Although I do think that it had TD status yesterday and was very well organized and also think that NHC were correct upgrading it, I agree that right now it's very poor organized and may be an open wave. It's encountering strong westerly shear and will be hard for the TD to survive it.
By the way...NHC is keeping the TD status on last 11:00am advisory.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 111436
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED JUN 11 2003
...DEPRESSION NOT STRENGTHENING...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1050
MILES...1700 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.8 N... 44.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
By the way...NHC is keeping the TD status on last 11:00am advisory.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 111436
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED JUN 11 2003
...DEPRESSION NOT STRENGTHENING...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1050
MILES...1700 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.8 N... 44.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
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- Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Yep, NHC has ... but I like the technical discussion ...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT...WHILE AFWA IS AT 30
KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS WAS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER THE
CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...OR EVEN WHETHER THE
DEPRESSION HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF CONVECTION THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT A DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION
AFTER 96 HOURS BUT THIS MIGHT OCCUR WELL BEFORE THEN. SHOULD THE
SYSTEM STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WOULD FIND
ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE SOMEWHAT
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP
GFS...SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W LONGITUDE. AS A
RESULT...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES DEPENDS ON
HOW DEEP A CIRCULATION THE CYCLONE CAN MAINTAIN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS ALSO A BIT FASTER.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT...WHILE AFWA IS AT 30
KT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS WAS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER THE
CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...OR EVEN WHETHER THE
DEPRESSION HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THE CURRENT
UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF CONVECTION THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT A DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION
AFTER 96 HOURS BUT THIS MIGHT OCCUR WELL BEFORE THEN. SHOULD THE
SYSTEM STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WOULD FIND
ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE SOMEWHAT
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP
GFS...SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W LONGITUDE. AS A
RESULT...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES DEPENDS ON
HOW DEEP A CIRCULATION THE CYCLONE CAN MAINTAIN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS ALSO A BIT FASTER.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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