Lots of soup in the GOM & BOC.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

is it me or is this ULL trying to get to the surface rather quickly.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

This swirl is starting to look a little more organized right now. If convection can increase I wouldn't be surprised to see a system form before reaching TX. I'm going to give this a 40% chance of developing right now (up from about 20% when I first woke up). Certainly needs to be watched.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The swirl should pass just south of the tip of LA this afternoon/evening:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

[ROCK]

The swirl should pass just south of the tip of LA this afternoon/evening:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

I keep getting a X in the loop box for this link??

swirl in the mid-levels right now from what I gather.

[vbhoutex]

All I see is some collapsing storms and outflow boundaries. I see no organization at all at this time. Not saying something can't happen, but it has a long way to go before I will begin to worry about it at all. Yes, it will enhance our rain chances tomorrow and Monday, but I don't see anything of consequence happening with this. I watched Alicia develop. We were vacationing in Ft. Walton at the P's and my dad(my weather mentor) and I noticed what had happened with the front. As we left to return to Houston, I turned to him and said Ihope that thing doesn't develop and follow me home. days later we were in the middle of a very nasty situation!

[Extremeweatherguy]

convection seems to firing on the south side of the MLC:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

This already looks better than Chris did over the last few days.

[vbhoutex]

Right now they look about the same. Like they aren't going to amount to anything. The GOM convection is being blown apart by Northerly shear. It is obvious in the visible sat. Not much of anything still imo.

[sevenleft]

convection seems to firing on the south side of the MLC:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

This already looks better than Chris did over the last few days.

But as long as Chris is surface based, its the "better" system.

[vbhoutex]

THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLIER TODAY HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

From the latest NHC discussion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

convection seems to firing on the south side of the MLC:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... t&type=vis

This already looks better than Chris did over the last few days.

But as long as Chris is surface based, its the "better" system.

this area in the Gulf has weakened, and now I agree that Chris is much better once again. Could see some kind of re-organization as he moves into the GOM over the next two days.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

And would head to south Texas or Mexico if Chris comes back.