will a weak el nino form due to the SOI??

[Mac]

Or, if you don't feel like watching the atmospheric conditions you can always just watch Derek's forecasts. Over the past couple of years, I've found he is generally very darn good at forecasting hurricanes (although he's best at forecasting intensity development and track once a storm actually develops). I bet he's getting really itchy all over because he has too much time on his hands so far this season.

[Mac]

By the way, good to see you again Derek.

[willjnewton]

But what I am trying to say is do you guys think that this will be a busy hurricane season??? I need everyones thought's palease

[Aquawind]

But what I am trying to say is do you guys think that this will be a busy hurricane season??? I need everyones thought's palease

Yes it will still be above normal..

[Stephanie]

do yuo guys really mean that this is NOT going to be a busy or active hurricane season???

It's still early in the season, though the peak time is coming soon in September. I think that it still will be busy, but only based on what I've read from our pro-mets, Dr. Gray, etc. We'll just have to wait and see.

[Brent]

But what I am trying to say is do you guys think that this will be a busy hurricane season??? I need everyones thought's palease

I think it will be a little above average, but not anything like last year or even 2004. More like a normal year.

[willjnewton]

are you sure that this hurricane season of 2006 for the atlantic will be above normal everyone??? and by the way thankyou all so much for your responses

[Mac]

Like they say, Will, only two things in life are certain:

1) That my wife is ALWAYS right
2) And that she'll ALWAYS remind me of that fact.

[willjnewton]

why do alot of experts or pro mets or people here at storm2k think that this is going to be a busy hurricane or above average hurricane season???

[Stephanie]

are you sure that this hurricane season of 2006 for the atlantic will be above normal everyone??? and by the way thankyou all so much for your responses

No one is really sure will - The forecasters are just looking at what has happened in the past and using that as guidance. There's alot of grea information on this forum describing different weather patterns, trends, etc. from many people and they include links to those sources. I think it would be a great idea for you to look at the threads and read those links that are attached.

[Mac]

Because, generally speaking, atmospheric conditions are favorable. But, even if you have moist air and warm sea surface temperatures, wind shear will inhibit development as long as it persists. So before things really get kicking this season, the wind shear will need to calm down first. Watch to see if that happens. Then things should liven up.

[willjnewton]

so you are saying that the overall conditions are favorable for a above average atlantic hurricane season???

[willjnewton]

can someone answer my question I just had please about how things are favorable for this future 2006 hurricane season thankyou

[Stephanie]

so you are saying that the overall conditions are favorable for a above average atlantic hurricane season???

The majority of the conditions are favorable for development of an above average Atlantic hurricane season. As Mac explained though, right now there's the wind shear that's a bit of a problem but that is usually only a temporary problem. Wind shear isn't something that can last weeks or months like El Nino, SOI, etc.

[willjnewton]

thankyou stephanie for your response

[willjnewton]

so now I know that this 2006 atlantic hurricane season is for sure going to be above average.

[Brent]

so now I know that this 2006 atlantic hurricane season is for sure going to be above average.

Nothing is ever certain in weather... just remember that. I agree it will be above average, but there's never a "guarantee" about anything.

[willjnewton]

so everybody agrees at storm2k that this atlantic 2006 hurricane season will be above average???and give your reasoning behind it to please