steering current patterns and upper level winds

[willjnewton]

if someone looks at the satelite imagery or whatever and based on the steering current patterns and upper level winds according to that which area faces a significant risk of a major hurricane u.s. landfall??? and also how would the high pressure ridge along the east coast of the united states, where will that steer the hurricanes for this 2006 atlantic hurricane season?? also, thankyou all so much for your responses I love you all so much. so please answer my question and do it right so then I will leave you guys alone okay thanks.

[senorpepr]

I would say that looking at the -current- steering patterns, the Gulf Coast would be at the greatest risk for a major hurricane landfall. I say that because of the strong and westward expansion of the subtropical ridge as well as the TUTT near the SE.

With that said, the chances of a major hurricane landfall right now are very limited.

Of course, many things can change as the pattern is always changing.


You also asked about the subtropical ridge's affect to the East Coast. If it remains in place, it will reduce the chances of a landfall, since the ridge axis extended inland, not allowing storms to recurve. Furthermore, there is a weakness in the ridge well out to sea that will cause Cape Verde-like storms to recurve well before they affect the coastline.

Of course, if the subtropical ridge weakness or shifts eastward, that would increase the chances for a landfalling storm along the East Coast.

[senorpepr]

To piggy-back off my last post, it all depends on the current synoptic pattern.

With the atmosphere in a fluid-like state, it is always changing. The pattern today may pose a different solution than tomorrow's pattern.

Essentially, we'll just have to wait and see.

[willjnewton]

but why do you think the gulf of mexico???, I thought based on me reading the august update from Dr.Bill Gray I think said that the east coast is above average and the gulf is near average??? whats up with that???

[senorpepr]

Dr. Gray is looking at long-term patterns, where he's expecting more curvature around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. I'm pointing out the current situation -- as of today.

[willjnewton]

oh so you are saying the current situation as of today favors more gulf of mexico storms and the long term favors more east coast storms am I correct???

[willjnewton]

hello where our you people I just asked a couple of questions and I am NOT trying to be impatient

[senorpepr]

oh so you are saying the current situation as of today favors more gulf of mexico storms and the long term favors more east coast storms am I correct???

Exactly.

[willjnewton]

thankyou y'all

[senorpepr]

You're welcome.

[WXBUFFJIM]

oh so you are saying the current situation as of today favors more gulf of mexico storms and the long term favors more east coast storms am I correct???

Most definitely......this scenario I agree on as well.

Jim

[rainstorm]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... r&site=ATL

that says it all. big trough off the east coast, with an upper low in the central atlantic. the east coast is safe for now

[Bailey1777]

Will.Not trying to be rude but you open to many unnecessary threads and then you come across as rude when things aren't answered to your satisfaction or on your time frame. Just relax it will come to you bud.