Interesting Extended Forecast Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Seem more like a Fall time regime, or even early Winter, than Summer to me:


...LOWER 48...

NRN STREAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION LEADS TO A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW
REGIME COMPRISED BY FRI OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A NWRN US TROF AND MORE VIGOROUS AND COLDER
CANADIAN MARITIMES/NERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF. GUIDANCE
DIVERGES MORE IN ERNEST THEREAFTER AS TIMING AND ENERGY EJECTION
DIFFERENCES MUDDLE THE FORECAST OUT FROM THE NWRN US TROF INTO THE
US N-CENTRAL TIER STATES/SRN CAN WITH A SLOW MOVING AND CONVECTION
FOCUSING FRONT AND LEAD MESO-BOUNDARIES...BUT THE IDEA OF A SLOWER
TO PROGRESS SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN
THIS OVERALL PATTERN. FURTHER EAST...THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE 00 UTC UKMET DEVELOP A MUCH DEEPER ERN CAN/NERN US
TROF/LOW ALOFT THAN THE 00/06 UTC GFS. THE 12 UTC GFS...06 UTC
DGEX...00 UTC NOGAPS...AND BLOCKY NATURE OF THE FLOW SEEMS TO
SUPPORT DEEP SURFACE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND A GOOD PUSH OF COLDER
CANADIAN AIR IN ITS WAKE DOWN THRU THE E-CENTRAL US BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY PREFER TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF 00 UTC ECMWF SURFACE
COASTAL LOW DEEPENING AND SUBSEQUENT UNDERCUTTING SMALLER SCALE
SYSTEM DETAILS AFTER CONSIDERATION OF NCEP/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THIS APPROACH SEEMS TO ALSO MAKE SENSE WITH POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT/INTERACTION OF LOWER LATITUDE GULF OF MEXICO/SE US
FEATURES.


Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[willjnewton]

I was reading the discussion, but I do NOT understand the discussion very well what is your point, thanks

[willjnewton]

can someone answer the question I just had please

['CaneFreak]

chill out please will...

[willjnewton]

okay I am chilling but what is the point of that extended discussion though up above???

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Basically it means that a Eastern NOAM/Western Atlantic Trough (generally like what prevailed in June and July) should form by roughly the end of the Week. Such a feature would likely capture any TCs that approach the SE, and either move them out to sea, or perhaps pull them up the Eastern Seaboard, or even adsorb them into a large "Nor'Easter" type hybridstorm that could form. All depends upon the position of the Trough though, and it could on the other side of the coin shred any developing systems with it's shear. Hope that helps.

[willjnewton]

dang more east coast storms for this 2006 hurricane season based on that interesting discussion, I am very happy because of that right now, thankyou

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well storms could always "sneak" under the Trough, and could go South of the Caribbean Islands, but any that get near the Bahamas Islands (say 25 North, or more) should be pulled North, a week or more down the road.

[ronjon]

Boy, if the long-range GFS is any indication, the Cape Verde season is really going to take off in 10 days. The strong eastern seaboard trough lifts out and strong high pressure bridges the Atlantic. Looks like a conga line of storms rolling off Africa. If correct, good bye quiet season.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

dang more east coast storms for this 2006 hurricane season based on that interesting discussion, I am very happy because of that right now, thankyou

No offense, but why do you hope for East Coast storms?

[KatDaddy]

It would mean a very dramatic change. The high of ridging out west and a deep trough across the SE US. Anything forming E of the Caribbean to the Central Caribbean would turn NW and N. The BOC systems could be pulled due N toward TX and LA as well as points eastward. We normally see this in October. I will believe it when I see it if it pans out.

[deltadog03]

hahaa GFS has been trying to develop cape storms for awhile now...and...?? nothing.

[Swimdude]

dang more east coast storms for this 2006 hurricane season based on that interesting discussion, I am very happy because of that right now, thankyou

No offense, but why do you hope for East Coast storms?

Maybe he lives in California?

[Frank2]

I believe TWC mentioned this possibility two nights ago - it would mean cooler than normal temps over the northeast/upper midwest, and, would mean a likely recurve of any tropical systems...

Frank