http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/
They see an 84% chance for an active season.NOAA has 75%.
wxman57,those are your exact numbers right?
Tropical Storm Risk August Update=15/8/4
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willjnewton
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cycloneye
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willjnewton wrote:as much as four major hurricanes for this 2006 hurricane season,WOW I feel happy
Yes Will,and I would be happy if all the majors dont affect any landmasses in this 2006 season.
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willjnewton
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cycloneye
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P.K.,I didn't saw that you posted the outlook as it came out on the 4th. 
So that is why I posted it today in a delayed version.
So that is why I posted it today in a delayed version.
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P.K.
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Err, I don't remember posting it Luis. They reduced the numbers in their previous forecasts since February and this is the first time its been close to that.
Anyway interesting to look at the other forecasts as see a forecast of 10% below normal activity for the Australian region. Although you need to be careful with the number of TCs forecast as they are not using a ten minute average and it is a different region to that covered by the BoM including part of RSMC Nadi's region, and not all of TCWC Perth's region.
The NW Pacific forecast is 5-10% above normal but again be careful with the numbers as they are not using a ten minute average.
Anyway interesting to look at the other forecasts as see a forecast of 10% below normal activity for the Australian region. Although you need to be careful with the number of TCs forecast as they are not using a ten minute average and it is a different region to that covered by the BoM including part of RSMC Nadi's region, and not all of TCWC Perth's region.
The NW Pacific forecast is 5-10% above normal but again be careful with the numbers as they are not using a ten minute average.
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