There you have it

[hurricanetrack]

Sorry to create a whole new post on this but perhaps the 91L thread will no longer be needed.

The 10:30 outlook mirrors what I said in an earlier post about conditions not being ready yet. It takes so much time during these "normal" active periods and it could easily be late August before the lid comes off. The atmosphere is getting more and more juicy but that dry air still out there is a killer. It's not like I saw/see something that no one else can- the global models have not been robust with 91L and this has come to pass.

So.....give it another 10 days or so out there and we should see things change. I just hope it does not get out of hand like 2004 and 2005- or any other year for that matter.

[Jim Cantore]

Last year waves like this waited until they were on top of us to develop.

[hurricanetrack]

Looking at water temps off the East Coast, if we do have a large hurricane (or a small one) coming up from the Bahamas, there will be plenty of warm water waiting. The 80 degree line is almost to Atlantic City. Water temps off the Carolinas are now 30C. That is quite rare. Fishermen are telling me that the water is very blue out there- guess it means it's warm!

There is nothing that suggests we will see a below average season. So far, things are right where they should be. The tropics will give us plenty to rant and rave over soon enough. Enjoy the nights when we can get some sleep- those nights are numbered!

[Jim Cantore]

The water temp took a big spike up here in the last few weeks.

And Mark, I hope we have a quiet year, you need a break