) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 4.0N 159.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA
OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER. A 201713Z AMSU PASS DEPICTED A CURVED BAND OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND
IMPROVING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. A 200752Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED
ENHANCED WESTERLY, CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS SUSTAINING DEEP CONVEC-
TION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND CONVECTIVE BANDING
EVIDENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
4 north/159 east system to watch
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
