Max Mayfield: U.S. setting up for storm worse than Katrina

[montrealboy]

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArt ... =N18410596

FEATURE-Worst is yet to come, US hurricane chief says
Tue 22 Aug 2006 8:00 AM ET
By Jim Loney

MIAMI, Aug 22 (Reuters) - If you thought the sight of the great American jazz city New Orleans flooded to the eaves -- its people trapped in attics or cowering on rooftops -- was the nightmare hurricane scenario, think again.

Max Mayfield, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center, says there's plenty of potential for a storm worse than Hurricane Katrina which killed 1,339 people along the U.S. Gulf coast and caused some $80 billion in damage last August.

"People think we have seen the worst. We haven't," Mayfield told Reuters in an interview at the fortress-like hurricane center in Florida.

"I think the day is coming. I think eventually we're going to have a very powerful hurricane in a major metropolitan area worse than what we saw in Katrina and it's going to be a mega-disaster. With lots of lost lives," Mayfield said.

"I don't know whether that's going to be this year or five years from now or a hundred years from now. But as long as we continue to develop the coastline like we are, we're setting up for disaster."

Looking back nearly a year to the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, and the third-worst hurricane in terms of American lives lost, Mayfield said Katrina itself could have been a greater disaster.

By Friday night, more than two days before the storm struck the Gulf coast on Aug. 29, the hurricane center had predicted its future track accurately and also warned it could become a powerful Category 4 storm on the five-step Saffir Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

New Orleans was squarely in the danger zone, and emergency managers and residents had plenty of time to prepare.

"One of my greatest fears is having people go to bed at night prepared for a Category 1 and waking up to a Katrina or Andrew. One of these days, that's going to happen," Mayfield said.

Katrina went just to the east of New Orleans, sparing the city the worst of a massive storm surge and the strongest winds. But still the city's protective levees failed.

VULNERABLE CITIES

The worst-case hurricane scenario? Mayfield has many in mind. A stronger hurricane closer to New Orleans. A direct hit on the vulnerable Galveston-Houston area, the fragile Florida Keys or heavily populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale.

Or how about a major hurricane racing up the east coast to the New York-New Jersey area, with its millions of people and billions of dollars of pricey real estate?

"One of the highest storm surges possible anywhere in the country is where Long Island juts out at nearly right angles to the New Jersey coast. They could get 25 to 30 feet (7.6 to 9.1 metres) of storm surge ... even going up the Hudson River," Mayfield said.

"The subways are going to flood. Some people might think 'Hey, I'll go into the subways and I'll be safe.' No, they are going to flood."

Mayfield, a silver-haired, 34-year veteran of the hurricane center who became its public face in 2000, is a tireless campaigner for hurricane preparation, warning the 50 million people who live in U.S. coastal counties from Maine to Texas that they are all in the path of a future storm.

He is mystified by a study that found 60 percent of people in hurricane-prone U.S. coastal areas have no hurricane plan -- which to disaster managers means up to a week's worth of food and water squirreled away, a kit with flashlights and other gear and an established evacuation route to higher ground.

"After Katrina and after the last two hurricane seasons you can't understand why more people are not taking hurricanes seriously," Mayfield said.

Katrina, he says, killed people who stayed in their homes with confidence because they had lived through 1969's Hurricane Camille. Camille was a much stronger storm than Katrina when it crashed ashore in Louisiana and Mississippi as one of only three Category 5s to hit the United States in recorded history.

"There were a lot of people who lost their lives because they thought that they had already lived through the worst they could possibly live through," Mayfield said.

"Experience isn't always a good teacher."

[skysummit]

Well definately! A lot of people think what happened to New Orleans was our worst case scenario. It wasn't by far....It could get MUCH...and I mean MUCH worst than that.

[HURAKAN]

THE WORST IS YET TO COME.

[Stormhunter27]

Kent Brockman:

"Professor, would you say that it's time to crack each other's skulls open and feast on the goo inside?"

Professor:

"Yes, yes I would Kent"


I think we have to balance the need for educating the people who want to live near the coasts with a certain amount of fear mongering. I like Max's approach in that he really says that we shouldn't be complacent, but at the same time saying that there's a way to mitigate the disaster. I think we need to be careful not launch into hang wringing helplessness that seems to permeate the media these days.

Now, having said that, I still can't believe the amount of constructionalong the coasts. What really floored me was that after Frances (while admittedly a Cat 2 was a Cat 4 mega disaster waiting to happen) construction resumed at a furious pace.

It's only after katrina that I've heard people actually saying that maybe the destroyed areas along the coast should be left as is to provide a buffer for the next big one.

M

[Wx_Warrior]

One of these days, the end of the world is coming. Sorry had to do that.

[beachbum_al]

People don't think it can get much worse than Katrina and I am even wondering how it could get worse than that. I mean the MGC was pretty much leveled. The sad and scary thing is that Max Mayfield is correct in saying what he is saying. There will be a time when the big one hits and it will be bad. I look at towns like Houston, Galveston, New Orleans etc and think how in the world would we get all of those people out. Even Mobile scares me because I know what the roads are like during an evacuation and this area is not as near as large as the cities I just mention.

[skysummit]

Don't forget about us south of New Orleans. There are many small cities and towns down here. If Katrina would've hit 30 - 40 miles to the west, not only would New Orleans and the MGC still be devastated, but the entire Westbank would be under water. Not only Plaquemines and St. Bernard be destroyed, but so would Jefferson, Lafourche, Terrebonne, and some of St. Charles. Yea, it could get a lot worst.

[redmosquito]

THE WORST IS YET TO COME.

Was that like in the voice of God, or maybe just the guy that does all the movie trailer previews for Hollywood?

I need to know cause I'm not sure how alarmed to be.

[Stormcenter]

People don't think it can get much worse than Katrina and I am even wondering how it could get worse than that. I mean the MGC was pretty much leveled. The sad and scary thing is that Max Mayfield is correct in saying what he is saying. There will be a time when the big one hits and it will be bad. I look at towns like Houston, Galveston, New Orleans etc and think how in the world would we get all of those people out. Even Mobile scares me because I know what the roads are like during an evacuation and this area is not as near as large as the cities I just mention.

But the same could be said about any other natural disaster we "may" eventually get. We all know "eventually" Los Angeles and San Francisco are going to see a MAJOR earthquake or a F5 tornado will strike the heart of downtown Dallas or another major city. I just think Max is trying to keep everyone on their toes as we approach the peak of the season.

[Lowpressure]

Other than NO, off the top of my head, I think Galveston,Tx, Jacksonville, FL, Virginia Beach, VA, and Long Island, NY are set for a major issue with a direct strike from a big cane.

[stormchazer]

In Insurance Losses Terms

Top 10 worst places for an extreme hurricane to strike
Rank Location Possible insured losses* Potential total economic loss**
1 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Fla. $61.3 billion $122.6 billion
2 New York City, N.Y. $26.5 billion $53 billion
3 Tampa/St. Pete, Fla. $25.1 billion $50 billion
4 Houston/Galveston, Texas $16.8 billion $33.6 billion
5 New Orleans, La. $8.4 billion $16.8 billion
6 Mobile, Ala. $6.0 billion $12 billion
7 Boston, Mass. $5.1 billion $10.2 billion
8 Biloxi/Gulfport, Miss. $5.1 billion $10.2 billion
9 Myrtle Beach, S.C. $4.3 billion $8.6 billion
10 Norfolk, Va. $3.9 billion $7.8 billion


Sources: *AIR Worldwide Corp.