Strong Mid Level shear over Ernesto

[marcane_1973]

You can sure tell the shear is there. Ernesto looks ragged and weak on visible satellite. I think saying it is a CAT 1 is a little overboard. It still looks like a TS to me. Anyways if i lived in Florida i would not be worried at all with this storm only unless i had property right on the ocean front. This storm is more hype than anything. It is going to be over Cuba for quite a while. I think it will weaken more than what they are saying. It is possible it might only be a borderline depression TS once it leaves Cuba. If it takes the track it is showing now it will not have time to regenerate into something i would be worried about.

[gatorcane]

You can sure tell the shear is there. Ernesto looks ragged and weak on visible satellite. I think saying it is a CAT 1 is a little overboard. It still looks like a TS to me. Anyways if i lived in Florida i would not be worried at all with this storm only unless i had property right on the ocean front. This storm is more hype than anything. It is going to be over Cuba for quite a while. I think it will weaken more than what they are saying. It is possible it might only be a borderline depression TS once it leaves Cuba. If it takes the track it is showing now it will not have time to regenerate into something i would be worried about.

I would not underestimate the power of the GOM should it go there nor the waters in the FL straits - extremely warm (mid to upper 80s in some spots).

You are also making an assumption it will follow the "line" and not looking at the cone where there is a decent chance it would not be over land very long at all.

[Hyperstorm]

Currently this isn't even a Hurricane right now, and yeah this is a road block but its about to hit a brick wall with cuba. I'm not expecting it reach cane status again with all these factors. Could happen...but doubt it...

I agree, there's too much against this now for it to reach cane status. You can almost guarantee that this strength forecast will be coming down on the next advisory. If it hits Cuba as a tropical storm and not a hurricane, then it's over for sure...Cuba would only weaken a hurricane, but it would destroy a tropical storm. Central Florida still may get a tropical storm out of this though, because even if it weakens to a wave, there's still a chance it can get another LLC together and form into a tropical storm before hitting Florida, but that's a big IF.....This is fantastic news though!!! Hopefully all of the hype on this storm will be going away soon....

I will say that if by chance it manages to re-strengthen to a hurriane before hitting Cuba, then a weak cat 1 cane IS still possible for central florida....

Sorry to burst that bubble, but you'll find in the history books that Cuba doesn't destroy tropical cyclones. Frederick 1979 and Elena 1985 confirm the point.

Regarding the original topic...

I have to wholeheartedly agree with Derek on this. In fact, I was preparing a thread on this early this afternoon after looking at the weakening observed on satellite imagery. I believe this mid-level shear combined with internal structural changes caused the weakening.

If you look closely, you can definitely see mid-level cloudiness to the west of Ernesto undercutting the circulation. However, latest satellite images indicate less of that. Tonight, we should very well see quite a burst of intensification as long as it remains over water.

*This storm's structure reminds me greatly of a particular hurricane. Unfortunately, I can't recall the name right now. The next day the storm became a powerful system. As soon as it comes to my mind, I'll mention it.

SSTs 86* and rising...

[gatorcane]

Hyperstorm I completely agree with you. Cuba may not do much to weaken this thing and history has proven that. I'm still leaning towards a serious storm approaching the US, if I had to put money on it that is what I would say.

[HurricaneBill]

Also, remember Georges strengthened back from 65KT to 95KT in between moving off of Cuba and hitting the Keys.

[pcwick]

Is it accurate to say that the tilted axis of the rotation of the storm that developed today was more likely due to the mid-level shear rather than having anything to do with land interaction with Hispanolia?

[caneman]

Intensification looks to be starting.

[Hurrilurker]

I agree Derek, lets see what happens in the near future, conditions seem fine for intensification once it moves further away from Haiti, between Jamaica and Cuba, the same area Dennis rapidly intensified in.

But, Dennis stayed more west/south than where Ernesto is forcast to go. Dennis had a lot more warm water to move over before crossing Cuba, and it crossed at more of a perpendicular angle, minimizing the land interaction. Ernesto is forcast to traverse Cuba more lengthwise, spending a lot of time over some very rough terrain. I'm not going to say it's finished, but I don't think it's going to get a chance at Dennis-like intensification.

EDIT: Oops, also forgot to mention that Dennis had more time after it crossed Cuba, all the way to the Florida panhandle, whereas Ernesto is forcast to rather quickly recurve into Florida (and this keeps moving east with each forcast, shortening the available time and water further).

[johngaltfla]

Derek, thanks for a logical explanation as to the weakening we saw earlier. I'm leaning towards an intensifying Cat 2. I've been through 3 on this coast and most, not all, tend to hit that warm shallow water and explode right before landfall. Like many have observed, if Charley had stayed over water for 2 more hours, God only knows what would have hit Tampa Bay...

[wzrgirl1]

I agree Derek, lets see what happens in the near future, conditions seem fine for intensification once it moves further away from Haiti, between Jamaica and Cuba, the same area Dennis rapidly intensified in.

But, Dennis stayed more west/south than where Ernesto is forcast to go. Dennis had a lot more warm water to move over before crossing Cuba, and it crossed at more of a perpendicular angle, minimizing the land interaction. Ernesto is forcast to traverse Cuba more lengthwise, spending a lot of time over some very rough terrain. I'm not going to say it's finished, but I don't think it's going to get a chance at Dennis-like intensification.

two different storms I agree but if you take a look at the CDO in Ernesto it seems to be going through an intensification process....making me a little more skeptical as to it weakening too much over Cuba

[T'Bonz]

On the 8:17 radar (weather.com), it sure has lost its convection. Bear in mind this is how it appears to someone who is an amateur at this stuff.