00z GFS direct hit on S.FL again 3 runs in a row

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Recurve]

Great. My house is the X. What's the pressure at the end there?

[Canelaw99]

Oy...that's at least 24 hrs. that this model has been showing that same track. And, if I'm not mistaken, doesn't it have some recon data in at this point from the previous recon missions? Shouldn't that lend more credibility to it? Also, shouldn't the fact that it's been this consistent mean something? I, for one, have never bought that wide westward swing that has been in the forecast path, as Ernie has been tracking a smidge more north it seems....

Well, appears hubby and I may be pulling in furniture and boarding in a couple days...blah!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

South Florida CANNOT take another hit. Even if it were a CAT 1 or strong TS it would be very devastating with the Wilma and Katrina damage from last year....

[Droop12]

Well, if this does pan out it doesnt take long to clear Cuba. My concern is that Cuba wont affect Ernie to much because he lacks a inner core at the moment.

[Vortex]

At H-60 hrs Right over South Florida. This model has been very consistent for multiple runs know pinpointing nearly the exact location.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_060l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

Would we call this a stall over SFL?

[Canelaw99]

Yep...consistency is always the key, at least in my book, and when there's no deviation I definitely take notice.

[Brent]

Would we call this a stall over SFL?

Yeah...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Would we call this a stall over SFL?

Yeah...

Cant be good Brent..LOL

[gatorcane]

well unless something dramatic changes in the next few hours another shift right could be in store at the 5am advisory and new watch/warnings posted for South Florida....just my thought

[Canelaw99]

I have a feeling we'll see watches/warnings for S. Fl at 5am anyway, but if things stay the way they are, I think you're right gator....the NHC will have no choice basically but to shift a bit right towards the southern tip of the peninsula, or at least the upper Keys....