Whos tracking 00Z GFS tonight?

[DESTRUCTION5]

someone with better than dialup i hope..LOL

[Canelaw99]

LOL - post a link and I'll check into it - I have quick DSL...

[jimvb]

It is now 2006 August 27 2346 EDT. GFS 0Z has 36 hours out on the NCEP site. Not much, but it does show Ernesto going to the EAST of the Florida peninsula. Each run seems to move it farther and farther east. If this happens, eventually it will be a complete fish.

[SouthFloridawx]

[cinlfla]

No ...not a fish Ernesto has already been pounding Haiti

[Canelaw99]

edit to reflect the post of the graphic:

How is that going east of the peninsula? It looks to be a pretty close hit on my section of the state, and I'm not happy about it.

[gatorcane]

edit to reflect the post of the graphic:

How is that going east of the peninsula? It looks to be a pretty close hit on my section of the state, and I'm not happy about it.

Yes it IS looking more and more like a metro South Florida issue with each run. Can you believe it? I am really in shock here.......who would have though Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-W.Palm would have to deal with this thing????

[Brent]

Over Miami at 54 hours. Not EAST of there.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif

[zlaxier]

Interesting. The NHC said the 00z GFS would shift west cause of the stronger ridging the gulfstream flight sampled.

I don't see any movement west. GFS has a direct hit on Miami it looks like.

[Canelaw99]

1006 MB would equate to what, roughly, in that graphic Brent linked???

[mempho]

What's the pressure at landfall per this run?

[bayoubebe]

It is now 2006 August 27 2346 EDT. GFS 0Z has 36 hours out on the NCEP site. Not much, but it does show Ernesto going to the EAST of the Florida peninsula. Each run seems to move it farther and farther east. If this happens, eventually it will be a complete fish.

What is the reasoning there?
What makes it go EAST?

[Brent]

1006 MB would equate to what, roughly, in that graphic Brent linked???

It would be rather weak if that verified(it's 1004 mb now and 50 mph winds).

[Droop12]

It doesnt matter, GFS is really only good for track purposes. I dont think it ever shows a low pressure system which is tropical below 1000mb it seems.

[Canelaw99]

Ah, ok...ty

[mempho]

It doesnt matter, GFS is really only good for track purposes. I dont think it ever shows a low pressure system which is tropical below 1000mb it seems.

Terrific point, but still nice to know what it's throwing out there.

[WxGuy1]

It doesnt matter, GFS is really only good for track purposes. I dont think it ever shows a low pressure system which is tropical below 1000mb it seems.

IIRC, I think the GFS and ECMWF both showed like 950mb with Rita in the Gulf last year. You know it's going to be a BIG deal when global models forecast the pressure that low.

[Droop12]

It doesnt matter, GFS is really only good for track purposes. I dont think it ever shows a low pressure system which is tropical below 1000mb it seems.

IIRC, I think the GFS and ECMWF both showed like 950mb with Rita in the Gulf last year. You know it's going to be a BIG deal when global models forecast the pressure that low.

Really? I guess I dont remember to well. As far as I knew the GFS sucked at forecasting the intensity of TC's. I use GFS for track purposes and GFDL for intensity, but I take both with a grain of salt.

[Wthrman13]

Really? I guess I dont remember to well. As far as I knew the GFS sucked at forecasting the intensity of TC's. I use GFS for track purposes and GFDL for intensity, but I take both with a grain of salt.

It sometimes forecasts reasonable low pressure values in the model TC, but in my experience these are usually for the larger hurricanes, that the model can resolve better with its relatively coarse grid.

Nevertheless, the pressures are almost always overestimated regardless.

[jimvb]

To me, the 2006 Aug 28 06Z GFS run shows Ernesto still hanging in there, and this time it shows a high coming in from the north forcing the storm out to sea at the Outer Banks, where it does a curly-cue then goes off to menace New England. No, not a fish.

All the models show the storm coming up the coastline except one - GFDL, which shows the storm plowing into central Georgia and North Carolina and then simply vanishing in the West Virginia mountains.